Baytex Energy Corp T.BTE

BTE Valuation, Other Calculations

[Ztransformer]

June 14 closing price: $4.38/share
Latest investor presentation had 811M shares O/S (May end)
June 14 BTE market cap = 4.38 X 811 = $3.55B

Pretty positive that O/S shares count will fall below 800M shares by July end. 

Let's say by 2025 summer, O/S shares count falls below 750M shares, $75-80 stable WTI prices, solid FCF generation, reduced debt, increasing dividends, Market Cap = 1.70 X $3.55B = $6.03B (taking 70% increase from current market cap via solid financial and operational delivery)

Deduced share price = $6.03B/750m = $8.04/sh
If Market cap = $7.50B, then share price = $7.50b/750m = $10/sh

Just working thru $/share valuation math piece to show impact from continued share buybacks. 

Total pro-forma O/S shares post Ranger Oil acquisition was ~865m (currently 811m shares which is 6.2% reduction within a year). @750m O/S shares would be 13.3% reduction.  

[1234bmth]

Your calculations make no sense, where did you get the 70% increase in MC? And further more market C is determined by SP and outstanding shares, and you are determining SP based on estimated market C which is wrong SP is determined by Mr. Market and market looks at performance which so far since Ranger Oil acquisition has been poor and despite reduction in number of shares the SP has declined 25

[Ztransformer]

Dear 1234bmth - first of all you are a nincumpoop having 2 year old child's brain.  BTE supressed SP is because of: 1) higher debt as result of Ranger acquisition, 2) CRA tax reassessment (to sme extent), 3) Algo trading, 4) Stupid market/retail thinking poor Q1/24 result despite management's guidance (Q1 was front loaded Capex heavy), 4) JUNIPER overhang (first tranche was sold last

[1234bmth]

Call me anything you want, but I can assure you I have more knowledge of financial than you do based on your comment. At the time of the Ranger acquisition BTE promised $1B FCF at $75 WTI and now it says $700M at $77 WTI, and this the main reason of poor SP performance and of course other factors are also contributing to it, but all other factors except for CRA tax re assessment apply to all other

[Frank007]

You want another reason ....Eric Nuttal has been sellin not buying ...I did see ninpoints had 50,milion shares to make the deal work ...but if you look at the 2023 largest shareholder ...nine point has only 40 milion ..and now down to 38 milion ...that seems like selling to me ...

[Ztransformer]

This post has been removed in accordance with Community Policy

[HeavyBanana]

Frankie baby, provide a link to the reference you are citing that shows Ninepoint held 50 million shares at any point in time. If you can't, just say so and your delusion will be understood. 

[Ztransformer]

Thanks man for your eye opening insights. Will talk @ year end/summer 25. Take care.  Not sure whether you are long/short, looks like you are under the water (if long). 

[Hellboy1]

Wow z, you got the pom poms out early.,not surprized

[Ztransformer]

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[Hellboy1]

If its true you have 1.2 mil shares at 42 cent you can be my Daddy, Happy fathers day

[Ztransformer]

NOT be my daddy, I AM YOUR DADDY! Don't forget that son.