TSX:CCO - Post Discussion
Post by
retiredcf on Oct 06, 2023 9:27am
TD Notes
Highlights - TD Nuclear Fuel Cycle Roundtable 2023
Event
We hosted the 8th Annual TD Nuclear Fuel Cycle Roundtable conference on October 5.
Impact: POSITIVE
We have summarized what we view as key uranium market commentary that was provided over the course of our discussions with uranium producers, investors, and buyers. We would characterize the tone over the course of the roundtable discussions as very positive, with a number of long-time participants in the nuclear fuel cycle saying that they have never seen such a constructive environment for the nuclear sector.
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Last week's announcement from Kazatomprom (KAP) that it will increase uranium production to ~31,000tU per year by 2025 (from ~21,000tU in 2023) was largely expected by the physical market. Most participants see the announcement as a positive development, given it suggests healthy demand from utilities globally. KAP management noted that a large portion of the increased demand has been committed to term contracts and that the company remains focused on supply discipline.
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Utility term contracting activity is expected to remain at high levels through 2024/2025. After 10+ years of contracting below replacement rates, utilities are recognizing that the supply buffers (surplus inventory and secondary supply) they came to rely on over the past decade are either exhausted or significantly diminished and that security of supply both mid- and long-term is now priority, with political risks increasing, combined with higher global demand as nuclear generation capacity increases.
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Producers are focused on market-price-related contracting. Price floors in market-related contracts have been moving higher in concert with spot prices. We believe that current price ceilings/floors are in the $50/$85/lb range. Some presenters noted that they believe that price floors/ceilings could move into the $70/$100/lb range if recent price trends are maintained.
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Reactor life extensions have brought more demand into the mid-term contract market. Globally, a number of utilities have extended the life of operating reactors that were expected to close in the near term, resulting in a wave of demand for nuclear fuel within the 3-5-year window. However, producers are generally heavily contracted within that time frame, resulting in additional upward pressure on prices.
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