RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:Big open on deck; $1.90 in sight in L2'shorseshoefalls wrote: Thanks for that document. I'll plow through the report for curiosity sake.
I just saw $830 on futures and May 2021 is at $615. This is madness.
Given all their lumber won't get that amount due to the mix, but can you imgine CFF producing lumber until May in the $600 range? They may not have as huge pile of cash as the big boys, but remember we only have about 46 Million shares. By then, they should have $1 a share in cash alone. So right now we'd be looking at an extra .60 cents for the power plant, the mill and the 80M or so worth of tenure. Absolute Minimum $4 value.
Well the short story is this is trading at 1.0x next 12 months EBITDA at these prices. At a minimum we should be much higher, even a modest 5x recongizing this won't last forever.
5x forward EBITDA, presented below, assuing no debt (it's as good as gone for the plant and mill) is $8.03 per share. I based the lumber rev off the futures prices and ignored power revenuce (an extra $14M). Ken in a financier who is likely bored running a "SAWMILL COMPLEX" as he calls it so he's gonna likely scheme up a way to seperate the assets, as he should. So please do the King Soloman and give me my $4/share for "CONIFEX POWER, A K SHEILDS REDWOOD ORGINAL" and then we'll value the mill independently as I've done below.
| | | | | | | | | |
| | Costs | Revenue | Margin | Margin % | Volunme | EBITDA | Quarter | |
| June | n/a | n/a | n/a | | | | | |
| July | $400 | $700 | $300 | 75% | 15000 | $4,500,000 | | |
| August | $360 | $850 | $490 | 136% | 18000 | $8,820,000 | | |
| Sept | $360 | $820 | $460 | 128% | 20000 | $9,200,000 | $22,520,000 | Q3 |
| Oct | $360 | $780 | $420 | 117% | 20000 | $8,400,000 | | |
| Nov | $360 | $760 | $400 | 111% | 20000 | $8,000,000 | | |
| Dec | $360 | $720 | $360 | 100% | 20000 | $7,200,000 | $23,600,000 | Q4 |
| Jan 20 | $360 | $700 | $340 | 94% | 20000 | $6,800,000 | | |
| Feb 20 | $360 | $670 | $310 | 86% | 20000 | $6,200,000 | | |
| Mar 20 | $360 | $640 | $280 | 78% | 20000 | $5,600,000 | $18,600,000 | Q1-2020 |
| Apr 20 | $360 | $600 | $240 | 67% | 20000 | $4,800,000 | | |
| May 20 | $360 | $580 | $220 | 61% | 20000 | $4,400,000 | | |
| Jun 20 | $360 | $500 | $140 | 39% | 20000 | $2,800,000 | $12,000,000 | Q2-2020 |
| | | | | | | $73,920,000 | | |