RE:RE:RE:RE:December Short Report +350K Well, it's <0.01. So about 0.75%. More than I'd expect but picking up nickels in front of a stream roller is popular it seems. Peak Tesla shorts was about 10% as I understand. The play is either event driven or reversion to the mean (lumbers gonna go back down to $300 cause it was there for a decade plus). We know that's not aligned with the macro environment but to each their own.
They really need a black swan to cash in because you're stupid, or at least have very attenuated upside, shoring something trading at 1x to 2x EBITDA in an industry that is likely looking at a material multiple expansion. So this could both catch up to the norm (5x), then go to the new reality when they return capital in a more robust way (8x). The extreme cases have this as a possible 10 bagger should the stars align.
it's also a rough day at the races when the M&A cycle hits. Man, what a way to get smoked. Anyway it's gotta be an event driven thing betting against the power asset or maybe the leadership change. But if Ken retired tomorrow the jokes on the shorters -- you could bring in a retired Canfor or West Fraser exec for a short stint and actually do far better.
anyway, I could care less what these people do. The wild thing is that draw backs in pricing are pushing on a spring as the relative valuation gap vs the rest of the industry grows, and forestry goes from zero to hero on the coming quarters. Wait until the special dividends roll out. I doubt we get one here, because Ken McConnell is largely unaccountable and needs cash to empire build, but it's going to re frame the sector and its earnings torque in a new light.
That's phone typed so might be choppier the usual.