Conifex Timber Inc T.CFF

I should show my math given I said "easy $3/share"

[dosperros]

This relates to the previous post.  Table below in $CAD, Millions, assuming 47 million shares outstanding..  I'm just spitballing debt but it's conservative as they are <70M in power debt now but I'll assume Sheilds finds a way to squander that on something ill thought out or maybe obscence severence payments or something

	EBITDA	Multiple	Value	Less Debt	Valuation	Per Share
PowerPlant	14	10	140	(80)	60	$1.28
Mill	22	5	110	0	110	$2.34
						$3.62

This assumes $100/MFBM mill margins which is more than attianable now, and a bare bones 5x (the stock market average is closer to 14x so a huge discount for a decent asset).

My worst case is $2.29 per share, below.  That's not an EBITDA multiple but just liquidation value:

Mill = $0
Tenure: 700,000 M3 @ $80/M3 = $56M
Power:  EBITDA @ 8x less debt = $52M.

That's $108M free and clear over the 47M shares for $2.29.

Absolutely, stunningly pathetic this is <$2.00.  Sheilds should be fired ASAP and I don't give a truck about the cost of doing so.... but in reality he is likely being foreced to train his sucessor who will be a caretaker CEO.  So he's basically on 'working severence' as is.  It's like pro sports with a bad coach --  who cares that Mike Babcock in Toronto for the NHL has $6M a year left on his contract for years and years.... you still fire a creep like that as he is awful.  Anyone advocating for keeing Sheilds around after the sheer havoc he has brought needs to read up on sunk cost fallacy.

[PronounTout]

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[horseshoefalls]

Someone's put a big block up today at .77.  Either trying to cash out or steal shares and then magically the wall will be gone.  Lumber futures up again in the 480's!!! This is great news.  Even KS can't screw things up at that price (assuming he doesn't try to buy anything). The other thing is that if lumber stays hot and ANYONE decides to get in on this stock

[black4444]

We’ve had this thing underwritten at north of $2.00 on a liquidation basis for quite a while now.   Here the math as at Mar 31/20:   Working Capital - $23m   As per the March 31, 2020 financials.   Power Plant - $108m   This is simply the NPV of $11m of free cash flow + $110m of terminal value in 2035 all discounted back to PV at 10%. An infrastructure buyer would

[dosperros]

Wow, that's how to do a detailed financial assessment.  This is also the stuff that's the domain of the professional analysts (and tends to be v. costly unless you're mooching off a friend with a ThomsonOne uni hookup), so thanks for sketching this out. I'm glad my slapdash EV/EBITDA approach is directionally correct.  And I'm in second place, as even the sharp

[PronounTout]

This post has been removed in accordance with Community Policy

[dosperros]

Below is the best valuation I've seen, written by someone who is clearly an insider with deep financial knowedge and industry acumen. I am re-hashing it as it's relevant to the buy-back discussion.

[hawkowl1]

Dosperros your contribution to this board is priceless.  Thank you for guiding me to this hidden gem.. Was amazed how cheap this asset is. What I cant understand is how management could have allowed this to drop so low. When I saw 14 million of cash flow from power plant alone I decided I wanted to take a decent position from the get go this morning. Was on it like a dog with 2

[dosperros]

Haha right on.  It's not everyday you can find a company worth way more dead than alive, with a high book value and strong fundamentals, that has it's market cap = next years earnings.   That's crazy, but speaks to the mgmt issues in the past.  In hindsight it should never have been allowed to drop this far.  But they present very poorly and have this weird