Post by
dosperros on Aug 11, 2020 3:23pm
Yet... more work needs to be done. The P/B is in the gutter
As a quick skim, CFF has a price to book of about 0.44 whereas IFP, CFP and the like are at least 1.17.
So, to my previous comment, I think there's some (limited) momentum, but the onus on Ken is to transition from firefighting ("WE ARE NOT GONNA BE INSOLVENT") to realizing some minimal level of value.
My hope, and theirs, was likely that Ken's 5 point plan in the Q1-2020 call would send the price back to the $2 or $3 level. Will it was great for the status quo, but so light and wishy washy as to the future (and ran counter to the gospel of RBC) the SP rallied to $1 and stuck.
So, ball is in your court buddy. Earn your damm pay. Commit that either the powerplant pays its own debt and nothing else (debt free in ~3 or 4 years) then the mill pays divs on variable + corporate costs OR powerplant funds 100% shareholder payout and the mill pay the div. The downside with the second case is the div is a rollercoaster. I like option #1, moreover if they wanna do M&A leverage the lumber boom to use the cash from the mill for that WHILE using the powerplant to have a modicum of respect for shareholders and stabilize the SP.
In any case we need a dividend as a vehicle to return cash to shareholders. NOT a grotesque NCIB that presumably will be botched. We see that lots -- e.g. Canfor. They buy heave when the price is over $30, and ignore it when the price is <$10. Not the most pragmatic approach, and I think CFF would butcher a NCIB just like Canfor. I have not seen any good judgement from this team. F the tax effectivenss of the buy-back and pay my my money guys.