Conifex Timber Inc T.CFF

"Some of you have asked about cash..."

[dosperros]

-Asked by investors
-Asked by Board
-Asked to present to BOD next meeting
-Variety of factors to consider...
-1. Balance sheet preservation. 2. Safety CAPEX. 3. Funding projects (this is what Warren Buffett hates BTW, and why he doesn’t go into capital intensive industries).

-Trade at huge discount to book values, vs. the 20% premium the other investors have.

-We believe return on shareholder investment will improve as they move to greener sawtimber and the duty goes away.

-"We are seriously evaluating the suggestion that we implement as share repurchase program"
*****
Q&A:

1. What’s a reasonable range EBITDA in Q3 per Hamir @ CIBC
   1. They are conservative
   2. Expect full year EBITDA of at least double the consensus $6 to $8M.
2. How are you maximizing returns?
   1. 5% to Japan
   2. 12.5% to China
   3. 12.5% to Canada
   4. 70%+ to USA
3. Govt’ grant benefits for Q3.
   1. Looking at it now
   2. Expecting a run up in revenuce, and DQ from further subsidy
   3. Not at the level of the Q2 subsidy where they saw $2M
4. What's the dead live mix in Mack?  Per Paul Quinn
   1. 45% green
   2. Had been as low at 30% greeen

[ValueCap]

Glad to see you're on the call too 

[dosperros]

Well I musta have missed the punchline seeing as it is now 13% down lol.   Any Paul Quinn questions on a dividend?  I usually prefer the questions he and Hamir Patel ask to those of Sean at TD, but maybe he had some good ones. Shame the BMO guy Mark Wilde doesn't join.  He lit up the Canfor guys for thier lousy (well nonexistant) record of refusing the give sharehodlers a

[horseshoefalls]

It's pretty much exactly as I predicted yesterday with the share price drop after the call.  Congrats to whoever scooped up $0.93 cent shares.   Meanwhile lumber is about to hit $700 MBF. NCIB would be okay, they either buy cheap / discounted shares or the price goes up.

[dosperros]

Fair enough the NCIB would help right now. There are about 23,000 share bid in Level 2's now.  There are maybe 1110 in ask. An NCIB would rip up those little 100 share lots and bring some traction to the pricng. I just think this has the chance for a power utility muliple, like 10x or 12x EBITDA for power, that will not be unlocked if they run this like a grubby sawmill where cashflow

[horseshoefalls]

It's funny how quickly those big blocks show up once the price drops precipitously. The low volume is a problem for NCIB, so it may just put a floor on the share price for awhile.  I guess that's the tricky part - we dont want it run up and then wasting cash buying back more epensive shares. With the dividend, I'm sure the biggest concern is shoring up the balance sheet by