Conifex Timber Inc T.CFF

Herky jerky whiplash fun.

[dosperros]

Absurd.  Q3 is going to generate 1/2 of the current market cap in cash earnings.  I can only hope measures to put a floor on the price, at a higer level (a div @ $0.25/share ) and generally (a buy-back) are brought in.

It looks like $950 lumber is about as high as it goes, and we have to see how much it moderates.  I see strong pricing at well over $600.  Much higher than the best year ever of $480.

I could have preferred seeing the pricing keep climbing, but that is detrimental long run (substitution and whatnot).  Will prices go below the $480 level?  Maybe.  But unlikely given that year has (1) far less housing starts, (2) climbing interest rates, (3) capacity in BC still going strong on bug kill pine, which is now shuttered, (4) a lack of a catalyst in the form of the repair and remodelling boom.

Now more than ever to my 2nd point and the covid disrpution, they must pay a divident with the power revenue.  Keep the sawmill earnings on the roller coaster.  But if there was the divident I noted drops like this would make a staggeringly high yeild and bring in new buyers.  But Ken knows best it seems.  I was thinking we'd be out of the woods soon but no such luck.

CFF as an entity should be disolved.  I know it's coming but it can't come soon enough.  Ken's strategy or lackthereof in 2020 is tone deaf and wrong headed.  All I know is I'm not getting shaken off my position, so I'm just going to tune this out.

[horseshoefalls]

Lumber stocks were down across the board.... Norbord quite a bit as well, and they'll be sitting on a steaming pile of cash that would make Floyd Mayweather jealous after Q3. I'm pretty much in full agreement with everything you've stated.  With the current fundamentals the share price doesn't make any sense.  We should see lumber prices stay above $600 for quite some

[dosperros]

Sorry, I meant falling interest rates.  It's a major difference w.r.t. 2018, and a powerful and compelling case for a div stream and a competitive advantage.   Seems like this drop got some attention though. On the plus side enough posts will crowd out the SH Spam nonsense.  Too much spam makes it hard to learn important things, like apparently I am fired from a hedge fund

[horseshoefalls]

Yeah, your hedge fund sucks.  Anyway, you may be correct on the acquisition potential suitors.  At least Ken has connections and has made prior deals with the aformentioned players.   $6.00 is fair, but at the same time seems optomistic for me, possibly longer term if they were able to continue profitability and get a dividend rolling. If there's a $6 buyout, we can meet

[dosperros]

Yes, good point.  Ken is well known and is a good deal maker.  Jordan comes out of the Pattinson umbrella as I recall too.  I am mostly thinking about Charlie Miller and BWC when I say $6 minimum. How can he stand by and crystallize a loss of 50% when lumber prices are 2x higher?  Miller, I hope, will demand other options be explored such as splitting into two entities