Canfor Pulp Products Inc T.CFX

Buying High 5's and Low 6's

[Fiberman]

Shanghai Futures prices are posting 6200ish RMB. $830net. Very profitable for NBSK moving forward. Perfect timing to be taking downtime for repairs at Northwood since nobody is getting railcars anyway. BCTMP prices are strong and will continue to move up after CNY. Lots of downtime and supply tightness. China inventories are dropping. Sometimes I beleive this stock is being manipulated. Yet at these fundamentals I will take the risk. Q2 results for pulp companies will be real with shipping eventually catching up and prices staying high. All markets are health for first half pulp demand - NA, EU and Asia. This is the year this stock has to make a move. Re intro dividend? Canfor parent buys out? Anyway, I'm buying at these levels. Enjoy the coming ride.

[woodwise]

This has been a complete dog for 3 years.

[Fiberman]

Totally agree. Yet it's an old dog now. Can't see this going below $5 with the forward pulp market outlook. If it does, it can only be consider dysfunctional. So that is the downside. What is the upside? $7? $9? $10+. Repairs at Northwood, logistic challenges and future fiber shortages are the negatives. My guess is that they are priced in. What does the parent want to do? Q2 NBSK prices

[woodwise]

I'm sure we will see $8 or $9 in the next 3 months. And I think it's worth betting a bunch of money on it. $6 is cheap for this stock.

[Nbsk]

  This is deep value. I own a lot. My expectations are 1.5x book value. It's time to sit and wait for the "weighting" machine to take over from the "voting" machine (well known Buffett analogy). Lets hope we have decent parent, not abusive parent.

[Nbsk]

Futures nbsk pulp prices are on the rebound for 4 months now in China. Another 5% since your post, or about $870 net, which is back to 52W high. CFX should benefit fully from Q2 once all pulp lines and trains are back on boogie street!

[Fiberman]

Yes! Prices are climbing globally and will likely continue until the start of the summer. Global logistics are still in a state of conjestion. Pulp inventories in China are slightly up in February but they are always up in February with consumption slowing due to Chinese New Year. China March pulp consumption will increase and carry thru Q2 before slowing down in the summer months. Lower global

[Nbsk]

"Pricing action in global pulp markets has heated up. Russian producer Ilim Group announced a $890/tonne list price on BSK in China, effective with March shipments." https://twitter.com/BryanSmithRISI/status/1496570416152068096 March 2022: China@890, USA@1515, Europe@1460 March 2021: China@850, USA@1420, Europe@1220 Prices everywhere are higher than the already good prices from

[Fiberman]

Resolute just announced up $70-$110 per ton effective March 1st. I am really having a hard time with why people would be selling this stock right now? I get why it is not high since it has not performed. Or why people would be reluctant to buy, but why sell? Lots of negatives are clearly built into the current $6 price point. So you bought last year at $9 - Yet you sell today at $5.80? Why? CFX

[woodwise]

Well if the price remains here tomorrow, I am jumping in. Did quite well a while back, bought at $5.80 and sold at $9.45. I can see the same type of thing coming. I don't think it will stop at $10, I think it may go well past on the next run.

[govtlithium]

waiting until after 4th qurater results. everyone knows those cant be good.

[Fiberman]

OK. Here we go. Q1 will still be tough. Q4 and the last two years have been aweful. Yet Q2 is looking to be very good. Shanghai Futures up again to 6800 RMB. Equivalent to $920 USD. US Market over $1500. Europe holding $1300 range. When CFX was $20 plus 2018 China was $900. Today we are in a stronger global price market Logistics will not be back to 100% until the summer. Giving ample time for

[woodwise]

No downside, I just bought back in this morning at 5.05, $100,000 worth.

[Nbsk]

At this price, it's a gift! Too small & too dull & too obfuscated to be on anyone's radar. (Maybe its the goal). They elected to do an asset impairment in Q4 which hides that we were tracking around 1$ of net earnings in 2021 for a 5$ stock!! It's going to remain on the negative P/E stock filters for year-end and thus invisible to most investors. Patience is required here, no

[woodwise]

I agree. I think when it does start moving, in a month or two, it will be a steady consistant climb. The thought of a $20 dollar share isn't hard to believe over the next couple years.

[Fiberman]

The writedown stung.Only the inside knows this. Clearly there are a number of shorts on this stock. Market fundamentals will take over at some point. Wish I was a big enough fish to light these short sellers up right now. Would have to think that the parent and insiders come back to buy next week when the green light comes back on. This is Canada's problem. Naked shorts. If only we could

[woodwise]

Totally agree. I've been in and out of this one over the years and made good money.