TSX:CHE.DB.E - Post by User
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anon314on Oct 13, 2021 8:21am
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Desjardins Research Report, Oct 12, 2021
Desjardins Research Report, Oct 12, 2021Prepared by David Newman and Chi Le
3Q preview—heating up the Bunsen burner with a surge in chemicals prices (a caustic hockey stick); moving to a Buy
The Desjardins Takeaway
We are maintaining our 3Q adjusted EBITDA of C$65m (in line with consensus), including C$24m SPPC, C$25m WSSC and C$31m EC, offset by Corporate. We are moving to a Buy (from Hold) despite some near-term challenges (impact of the Vale strike, transitory margin pressure on water solutions) given the strong rally in chlor-alkali (caustic soda and HCl/chlorine) and sulphuric acid prices, rising industrial production, increasing refinery utilization rates and secular tailwinds in the semiconductor market.
Valuation
We are raising our target to C$10 (was C$8) based on 7.5x EV/2022 EBITDA (was 7.0x) and our DCF. CHE trades at 6.7x our 2022 EBITDA estimate vs its specialty chemicals peers at 12.6x and commodity chemicals peers at 5.6x, including OLN and WLK at 5.2x and 5.7x, respectively.