kavern23 wrote: Chris..how can you ignore trading houses as in a bear market it is uber important.
So you think in August...retail investors would have just sucked up the 700k shares that CJ bought back?
Nobody can prove it, but it likely prevented CJ from trading under 2.10 for alot of August...and maybe even under 2 bucks temporilary.
Every stock transaction has a buyer and a seller.
Yangarra should be an example for you. Today it hit 1.46 and was on downward trend but like last week...GMP Capital bought YGR and supported it. YGR would be down to 1.30 very fast without that whale of a buyer as their is f*Ck all for retail innvestors right now.
Fundamentals mean f*ck all when people are scared sh*tless and have red ink all of their portfolio.
Your list shows how undervalued CJ is...CJ accomplished more then those other three companies did and we should be higher then 2.26.
Russia and OPEC are curtailing production...the problem has been some hedge funds/analysts expect USA to grow to near 13M by end of 2019.
Fairly great USA production growth is being priced in a sub 55 oil price.
Oil inventories in the states are still going down most weeks...but people are choosing to focus on an upcoming wall of oil growth.
Hard to say how much we will see for growth in this pricing climate.
Chris_toronto wrote: My call for oil in the $40's is macro. OPEC & Russia induced.
Yes, I too think US shale is on a declining trajectory but that's not bullish for me in the next 6 months. It's bullish in the years ahead but not much in the months ahead.
If you're talking long term, I am expecting US production to fall from current 12.5M b/d to under 10M in coming years.
As for the trading houses you posted, sorry but I won't even read that. What I'm interested in is observing that once a mgmt team "gets it", the stock price start out-performing. Here are examples I'm going to compile now (not best case examples). Two of companies that finally got the message and 2 that didn't.
CPG and CJ started getting it in early 2019.
ARX and TOG didn't. Still trying to grow production and waste their cash on ~ 10% dividends.
Stock Early 2019 Low Current
CPG $3.25 Feb $4.47
CJ $1.85 Feb $2.26
TOG $3.93 Feb $3.35
ARX $8.39 Feb $5.74