RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:TMX UnderwayI have a 2 month old trading position in Husky. When the layoffs started 2 days ago (I knew of it before the media broke the story), the stock went over $9.50 and I was tempted to sell. I didn't and decided to wait for the actual results. Ouch!! $8.80, so I'm still long.
That's why I thought the released results were poor.
I was saying in previous post that natty companies will report poor Q3 (low AECO price + low NYSE natgas price).
The positions I reported in my previous post were only the recent buys and show that I'm getting bullish on natgas stocks for the next few weeks. But I'm also long oil stocks such as cj, cve, cnq. I was tempted to add to cj today around $2.18 but didn't want to buy it on margin. At least not yet since my avg in it right now is $2.18. I'm pretty heavily loaded on energy and hoping for a good November. Fundamentally, I don't see a reason why the Canadian valuations are so low especially with the federal election behind us and the good news on TMX and Elizabeth Warren seemingly wanting to destroy the American oil industry.
kavern23 wrote: Chris... I am leaving politics out of this..as I would comment in the national post if I was interested in talking politics.
But I am curious on why people expect poor third results and how results have been poor so far that have been released...
Husky released today and the results were fine on the upstream part of their business..netbacks were 29.31 per barrel. The downstream part of the business..the upgrader were the sh*tty part...15 dollar margin vs 29 dollars...lower differential is actually bad for husky upgrader.
I think Cardinal results will be similar to first uarter of 2019.
WTI averaged 54.90 in uarter 1 of 2019. Light oil was 66 bucks.
CJ`s adjusted funds flow was 29.6M. CJ will cashflow over 30M easily in third uarter.
CJ wouldnt have been buying back shares like animals in August and Sept if money was tight...cashflow was likely very good. CJ also seems to have money to be drilling very steady.
CJ shouldn't be under 2.20...with results coming in third...it's INVESTOR AND FUND sentiment dude that is causing this..no buyers to any type of selling. They have abandoned buying canadian energy stocks right now.
Until this changes...even good news will be ignored.
CJ needs to just stay the course..and keep making cashflow. All they can control right now.
Chris_toronto wrote: Disregarding all the nonsense in the beginning 3/4 of your message, as for the reason to the sell off even when oil is up is because of expected poor Q3 results which started to roll in today. Especially so for gas stocks.
My expectations is that once the news is out, attention will turn to Q4 and gas stocks in particular will have a strong one. AECO futures are at multi year highs. BIR was signalled as the biggest beneficiary in a Scotia report his morning.
This is just my educated guess. Q3 is already behind us, always look forward.