RE:RE:WTI Forecasts 22-23Bit of a damned if you do, damned if you don't kind of thing because oil prices were threatening to cause a slowdown all by themselves with the way they were skyrocketing. The recent drop, IMO, is positive as long as covid doesn't send economies into another tailspin. CJ still makes money hand over fist at $100 per barrel, and demand is less likely to crater in the $100-$120 range.
marcrobert wrote: all that wont matter if virus lockdowns asia and recession europe and slowdown here. its risk off, oil down $30 in a week from temporary 130 peek. Nutall might dare to dream but if we get a global recession or even slowdown, oil may be back at 75 in 2 months. Does that change the 2-3 year picture or longer? not sure but follow on effects and self fulfilling prophecies can last, plus there's inflation and inverted yield curve risk of recession on top of that, slolwing earnings etc. ETF flows today big pension fund are selling index etfs to be more defensive (no doubt, with +200% in a few years on indexes) that means everything goes down which is pretty much what we see now.
The commodity and energy uptrend is porobably years if the economy doesn't tank. If there's a global slowdown next few months who knows but my guess is that will break it