RE:RE:RE:Share buy backsI'm not extreamly against share buybacks, but I do have a couple concerns on them despite the positives...
Positives being:
- shares have more potential value in that it increases your percentage of holding
- less shares means the dividend is more sustainable in terms of cost to payout, also means payout can be increased to match the buyback percentage (ie if by the current maths .10/month was sustainable, than with a 10% reduction in shares .11/month becomes appropriate with no added FCF needed)
My concerns:
- those paid to purchase the shares to be retired were not long term holders, therefore your paying out to uncommitted investors (they talk about buybacks as a return to shareholders, I believe it's a return to the wrong shareholders, more like traders or weak hands)
- as much as our personal percentage of ownership increases, as does the larger holders
- the larger holders (in this case I believe I'm pointing at Edwards) are very unlikely reducing thier positions for the retirement of shares, therefore there are less shares out there for the retailers like you and me
- should we have an oil downturn for whatever reason and the companies shares stay undervalued (as I believe most on this board agree they seem) or even go lower, the cost to take private or be taken over by anouther company becomes reduced (increasing the possibility) and it's less likely the current shareholders achieve the value we feel we are holding
This doesn't change my opinion on being a holder here, but I believe it increases my risks of not holding in the future by little choice of my own. I also feel that buyback $$$ would have been better suited to be spread to long term holders rather than those getting out. But more my concern I think it would have been more prudent to buyback before the payouts started as I just see that as money flushed out of my ownership that will hopefully be balanced by future returns.
I hope my concerns are just my mind wandering on the issue and looking for possible problems as I wish to be holding this name deep into the foreseeable future while collecting a significant payout each month. Share buybacks are not my favorite thing, especially on a significant cash generator and rather lower sized company even tho I know the positives of them.