Cardinal Energy Ltd (Alberta) T.CJ

sold today but will likely be back

[uograd]

this stock can be a cash cow if you don't get too greedy on either end buying or selling

not convinced that 85 oil is here to stay so a nice little run over the last few days after the ex dividend of over 10% and i will move to the sidelines for a while with a tidy little sum in my pocket

if it blows through 8 bucks all power to the longs but history has showed in the past this stock rises and falls pretty consistently

[VeritasVern]

True that this stock has risen and retracted consistently in past and we know that is based on oil sentiment/news which directly affects the direction of the price of oil. The main stories that seem to swing oil prices are bullish fundamentals on the upside, versus recession in the US/China most recently.  However of late it appears the fundamentals are clearly emerging as the dominate factor

[Quintessential1]

I agree and if oil swings in that $80-95 range the deciding factors in the share price should be the production reports and the earnings report with particular attention paid to production increases and debt reduction.  I believe those factors will define the ceiling and the floor that the share price swings between as WTI swings.   Question is:  what will those new sp levels

[JohnnyDoe]

I think part of what's holding cj back is the dividend. I was fine with it at 5 cents a month. I haven't bought any shares since it went to 6 cents. 5 cents was a very healthy dividend and it was safe. There's now an overhang on the safety iof the divvy with it now at 6. 

[JayBanks]

So your saying that the company paying $9.686 million per month is rather unsafe compared to the previous $8.161 million (which both total $116.232 mil and $97.932 mil on a full year basis) on the $270 adjusted cash flow (or free cash flow) projected at $80/barrel oil that was guided... (6 cents = 43% payout ratio and 5 cents = 36%)? Over the course of the year we have been running lower than the

[JohnnyDoe]

No, i didn't say the 06 cents a month is rather unsafe. It's safe at 70 based on my interactions with IR. It's not safe below 70. We've had stretches this year where wti was below 70. Those stretches had the stock down at 6.25. Had oil in the lower 60s hung on for a month or two they were likely looking at a dividend cut. Then what? 6 cents is 72 cents a year. That's great. If

[Pottsy]

It's not the Divi it's Murry Edward's. He gets over $230k a MONTH in divi, so he can tilt the cart anytime.....    P

[mickeymouse]

Your view is to use the extra cash to buyback shares or pay down the debt.   At what level should they buy back shares?  As cash flow increases with higher commodity prices so do share prices - last year they bought back 3.7 million shares at 7.05 - that buyback looks good now but two months ago (July 6/23) the share price closed at 6.59 - the buyback did not look very astute at that

[Quintessential1]

Regardless the divy seems quite safe now.  Their numbers were always based on average WTI. What will be telling is how they use any FCF.   With high interest rates and the possibliity of more, debt reduction would be prudent and demonstrative to investment funds looking for high safe yields as interest is probably as costly as the div right now. This latest commodity spike may

[Re1ndeer2]

I see $9+ by December..