RE:RE:CJ better not limp out on our dividendWhere to start:
"Everyone I see is projecting based on WTI"
The company projects based on WTI as well
"which is not the grade that CJ/Alberta/Saskatchewan produces"
Agreed, they don't deliver to Cushing Ok against the WTI contract. Their light oil delivers against Canadian Light Edm, with a slight discount, which is obtained in their financial statements.
the company itself produces a lighter grade that isn't even WCS
The company produces many grades. Its light grade is a discount to Edmonton Light. Its Medium gravity oil trades very close to WCS, over the past quarter and year. Are you suggesting a sudden market Midale-WCS dislocation? On what basis?
They also produce ~ 10% NGL's and NG (10:1 BOE conversion) which trade against a variety of prices, as they deliver into Chicago via Alliance.
Its not that hard given production from recent investor reports, assuming a relatively stable mix and observable market prices to capture it. The Daily Oil Bulletin and Bloomberg have good price reporting.
The meaningful part of your response was on debt levels. Capital was no doubt front end loaded, so the time to pay down debt to $100M may drag out, if management decided to spend some of their Q1 windfall on projects. So the timeline may get pushed to the right.
If they are hitting the projections they had that achieves a 6-7 cent payout, it would likely be a major issue if they do not payout like they said they would.
And a 6 cent a month would be 72 cents a year, which would be an 11% annualized yield. 7 cents would be 12.6% on current market price.
No one (besides you, your family and the CRA) cares what price you paid for any stock, ever, but that would clearly be a double digit yield.