Cardinal Energy Ltd (Alberta) T.CJ

Operational and reserves Update

[ROIcrusader]

I've owned Cardinal for a while now, but I had NO IDEA they had a land position and were drilling in the Clearwater formation. I do not expect the implementation of a dividend in the next earnings announcement based on the updated Feb presentation. I'd expect Cardinal will be one of Nuttals core holdings for his upcoming income fund.

Sneak peak into last Qtr performance via the last news announcement:

OPERATIONAL UPDATE
Cardinal produced 20,525 boe/d in the fourth quarter of 2021, averaging 19,090 boe/d for the year(1).

The Company drilled ten wells in 2021 consisting of eight producing wells and two injection wells.In aggregate the eight producing wells have delivered production at rates above expectation with average capital efficiency based upon the first 90 days of production of under $8,500/boe per day(2).

At current commodity prices, the entire 2021 drilling program is forecast to pay out in the second quarter of this year. Wells of note include a three leg multilateral Ellerslie oil well at our Southern Alberta Tide Lake property which averaged 428 boe/d(1) (IP90) and a nine leg horizontal at our legacy Central Alberta Chauvin property which averaged 386 bbls/d(1) (IP90). The two injectors were drilled at Midale, Saskatchewan further optimizing our CO2 flood with offsetting incremental oil production being realized ahead of schedule, at rates above expectation. 

Current production based on field estimates is 20,500 boe/d(2). Optimization efforts through the first quarter across our asset base have continued to reduce Cardinal’s already top decile base decline rate.

Year to date, 3 as part of our 18 well 2022 budget, Cardinal has drilled and completed four six-leg Clearwater oil wells at Nipisi, two development Dunvegan light oil wells at Elmworth and a follow-up three leg multilateral Ellerslie oil well at Tide Lake. Each of these wells are expected to be on-stream prior to the end of the first quarter with the first wells beginning production this week.

If you've read this far, you get the good part.

2022 at current strip pricing of $90 (no hedges)
CF:       337m
Capex    85m
FCF:     252m (1.51/shr)
Close cash balance: 74m

Cash flow Sensitivity to $1 WTI +/- 5.6m

1.4Billion in tax pools

Est 2H Dividend scenario @ $90 wti: 0.07/m

[BigJake]

Thanx for the updated info, very valuable and equally impressive. I wasn't aware of the clearwater property either.

[antonaki1]

This post has been removed in accordance with Community Policy

[antonaki1]

This post has been removed in accordance with Community Policy

[JohnnyDoe]

I think part of Eric's new fund is believing that cdn oil plays can't really ramp up production because we don't have the takeaway capacity. There's no point in pumping oil without takeaway capacity, it only results in a larger WCS differential. So....knowing that, what else do they do with the fcf?

[ronz]

This company has done incredible things, however, they seriously need to reinstate the divident to a fair and equitable amount. The competition aka the other canadian oil companies that actually matter have all basically committed to paying down debt, as well as paying out respectable dividends and doing some type of share buy back. The dividend is long over due to make a come back asap here. We

[ROIcrusader]

We will get our answer Mar 17th when they announce earnings.  They have been abundantly transparent about this topic, we will see a dividend when debt hits 100m. If you visit slides 10 and 11 https://cardinalenergy.ca/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/February-2022-Corporate-Update.pdf  They very clearly lay out the plan that upon hitting 100m debt 50% of FCF will be allocated to a dividend

[ronz]

Given the speculation on this dividend once the debt threshold hits 10 million or below, this should be coming sooner than anticipated based on the rapid increase in the oil price since this was decided. There for we could and should reap a dividend sooner based on the 100 million being reached sooner. This is not something that the company wants to mess around with as there is quickly becoming a