Post by
mickeymouse on Nov 06, 2023 11:14pm
2024 budget and SAGD impact
Looking at the 2024 budget and their new Redford SAGD project from the presentation:
2024 FFO = 290
Conventional Capex = 116
Thermal Project Capex = 68
ARO = 20
Dividend = 116
Debt will increase slightly next year - about 30 million.
Spend in 2025 on this project is projected to be 88 million but incremental cash flow of 28 million is projected for 2025 so net incremental capex in that year would be 60 million and the increase in net debt will be about 22 million.
So debt should peak at about 100 million in late 2025 but starting in 2026 there will be postive cash flow from this project - estimate for 2026 is about 105 million. So in summary a small increase in debt for the next two years followed by higher cash flow starting in 2026 if everything goes as planned and current oil prices/differential/FX rates etc. stay relatively static - a lot of ifs but the payout could be significant going forward.
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Comment by
Pandora on Nov 06, 2023 11:22pm
And what does that say for 2024?
Comment by
RockLobster1 on Nov 07, 2023 12:49am
I am looking to start a position... Does anyone see any impact short term from this report? Are there other companies similar to this one I should be considering? Looking for somewhat safe income stocks with some growth potential. Are the dividends in Canada taxed as return of capital or Canadian dividends with the credit? Thanks!
Comment by
JohnnyDoe on Nov 07, 2023 6:29am
Short term impact? Yes. The dividend is sustainable short term..Q3 was good, Q4 will be better. Debt ratio very low. Similar companies. In the cdn oil patch? Not really no. Probably the safest high yield oil stock out there Dividends with the credit