RE:RE:Rabbit HoleYes, first month of Q2 is when we will realize the benefit of the big March price spikes.
Q1 will be very nice, Q2 is forming up to be better.
JohnnyDoe wrote: 4thefunofit wrote: Got bored and did some math.
Most of the following figures and notes are from Cardinals February presentation and then I've laid out my calculations so you can see how I got there. Please poke holes if I make an error or a bad assumption.
Cardinals FCF for the 2022 at $90 WTI is 252($MM)/4quartes =63($MM)/quarter.
WTI has averaged about $94 for Q1. Additional $4*20,500bbl/d*91days=7($MM)
FCF for q1 should be about 70($MM)
Phase 1 debt level "100%of FCF will go to bank debt until bank debt is below 100($MM)..."
Bank Debt at Dec 31, 2021 was 165($MM)
165($MM) - 70($MM) = ~95($MM) of bank debt at end of Q1.
"The dividend rate is expected to be fixed at the prevailing oil price when phase 1 debt level is achieved..."
If my calculations are correct they should hit phase 1 debt level around now and as I write this the prevailing price is $103 WTI.
If I extrapolate their dividend chart 103 WTI should give a monthly dividend of $0.09 per share per month giving a 14% yield at todays share price.
GLTA
your math looks fine except for your Q1 price for oil. You are using calendar dates, not settlement dates. Q1 settlement dates closed around Feb 20 so Q1 pricing averaged about 80. Q2 pricing is already about 70% complete and is averaging above 100
if you go to the bte board, there is a poster called Baystreetwolf. He runs a blog that is bte related but he has all of these stats well laid out. The link to his blog is in many of his posts.