Cardinal Energy Ltd (Alberta) T.CJ

anyone think CJ will announce a dividend on Nov 4 2021 ?

[forecast123]

anyone think a dividend reinstatement announcement on Nov 4 2021 ?

[Re1ndeer2]

Something good is in the air.   We'll find out soon. 

[JayBanks]

So got some quick maths using a writer on Seeking Alpha's recent projections... Someone better than me might be able to clean this up and make it better. Shares outstanding = 150.3 million Free Cash Flow Projection at $70/barrel = 70-80 million (I'm using 75m for these purposes) 75m divided by $70/barrel = 1.071 times let's say average $80/barrel = 85.68m of potential free

[Rational43]

When the price goes from $70 to $80, the cash flow does not increase by $10/$70...it increases by $10/30, because the first $40 covers the costs.   So, very roughtly, at $70 they are making $30 per barrel in operating cash flow.  At $80 they are making 33% more, or $40 a barrel.    Second, Free Cash Flow is what is left after capex is paid for.  When the price goes

[JayBanks]

Yay, someone better than me! I like your maths better and yes that does make sense about the barrel cost staying the same, I got too playful with the calculator for my own good... You mentioned royalties, I've never noticed that mentioned, who do we pay royalties too? I also own Freehold Royalties (for less than 2 months) I haven't noticed the names mentioned together but I know

[Kontrary]

"You mentioned royalties, I've never noticed that mentioned, who do we pay royalties too? " If you read through any of the annual or quarterly reports of the companies whose shares you own, you should be able to get an answer to that question fairly quickly.

[JayBanks]

  You would think there would be a list of who we paid, how much and the dates... But in reading through the MD&A Quarterly, Annual reports (some that are over 100 pages long) and other documents, the most I can find is a breakdown on a couple classifications of 'Crown Royalites' to Alberta and Saskatchewan and thier agreement rates, but it doesn't break down how much we

[Kontrary]

Look for the term "netback." Most of the time, when O&G companies talk about royalties, it's a reference to government royalties, which come off the top and vary with the price of oil In some cases, companies will sell an income stream from specic production sources, but I believe that is accounted for differently 

[Re1ndeer2]

Royalties are negotiated with the lease and are based on WTI or WCS, and paid accordingly....If you Hedge @ $55 and WTI is $71, you lose on the Hedge difference and your Royalty payment is also based on $71.....

[Re1ndeer2]

Calculating and collecting oil sands royalties Each oil sands project is unique with revenues and costs that are specific to the project. The amount of royalty paid is based on: whether it is an approved Royalty Project or is paying royalties based on the royalty rates for conventional oil whether the Royalty Project is in the pre-payout or post-payout period of production the price

[jx7000]

Why not? My SU just doubled their dividend back to pre-pandemic levels, so yeah, I'm in for the long haul.

[riski]

There is widespread speculation and anticipation of a significant dividend from CJ which is priced into the current share price.  If they don't intitate one, this will drop hard.  If they announce a cosmetic one (less than 1.5%) this will likely go down.   SU's dividend announcement was a surprise today, and the magnitude was an additional surprise.   The

[Rational43]

I sincerly hope they don't announce a dividend, but instead a massive share buyback, with the intention of issuing another share buyback after that one has been filled.   With any luck the share price would fall in the short term, and they could steal a bunch of cheap shares from the market, making our future dividends all the much larger.   But, they'll probably do

[forecast123]

Probably what Eric Nuttall advocate ....somewhat close to a  "5% base dividend and at least 10% NCIB"....   I  suspect it will be a monthly dividend of 0.015$ (4% dividend) and 10% NCIB...  Ninepoint is second largest holder of  CJ shares, so the fact that they stay with CJ investment is good clue that they are in line with Eric's advocate..... 

[fishbeecee]

Forecast123, I think you may be a little rich on the base dividend...I used 20 mill as annual free cash flow and then took 25% to be distributed(Using Tamarack as an example of wht to expect). That works out to 3% or $0.14 per year But hey who's to split hairs. Any divy will be supportive of price and I bet there will be some fat special dividends paid!

[riski]

LOL, the better question is: Does anyone think CJ won't announce a dividend Nov 4?  The risk to the share price is if they don't announce big enough one or set the start date too far in the future.   TVE announced a nice sized dividend with spectacular results, and they have gone nowhere.  So basically the dividend and blow out earnings were in line with market

[x-x-x]

This post has been removed in accordance with Community Policy

[Kontrary]

I'm with you. I'm fine waiting for a dividend for another quarter or two as long as the cash is applied to the debt and not used for some sort of acquisition. The banks almost took this company down last year, which put management in a vice and would have wiped out the shareholders if prices hadn't recovered, so getting out from under that yoke has to be the first priority. Cutting the

[riski]

Absolutely.  National bank was totally screwing them and was on the verge of calling their loan and putting them into receivership.  It was very close.  CJ was looking around for a solution - a buyer, a merger or anything, but came up empty handed.  Until Murray Edwards came to the rescue.  Otherwise they would have gone bankrupt.   There were some disappointed

[ziggy1410]

I hope Murray steered them to a new Bank...

[antonaki1]

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[Wildstar82]

I would love to see one more quarter of CJ paying down debt. In the oil patch, debt will take a company down too fast.

[ziggy1410]

Agree to take debt to $150 million before dividend is reinstated,,Feb or March 2022...