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Computer Modelling Group Ltd T.CMG

Alternate Symbol(s):  CMDXF

Computer Modelling Group Ltd. is a Canada-based global software and consulting company. The Company is engaged in the development and licensing of reservoir simulation software. The Company also provides professional services consisting of highly specialized support, consulting, training and contract research activities. The Company has a diverse customer base of international oil companies in approximately 60 countries. The Company’s software includes CMOST, IMEX, GEM, STARS, CoFlow, Builder, Results and WinProp. The Company has sales and technical support services based in Calgary, Houston, London, Dubai, Bogota and Kuala Lumpur.


TSX:CMG - Post by User

Post by malx1on Feb 08, 2024 3:02pm
187 Views
Post# 35870707

Q3 price action - heavy selling

Q3 price action - heavy sellingWith an hour to go, almost $5mm worth of shares have sold today, pushing the price into $8's.......

Looks like an overreaction to a Q3 that showed material revenue growth combined with serious erosion of CMG's profit margins.

Free cash flow flat year-over-year.


I think the reaction here is overdone.   

After reading the MD&A, I had figured we would see some upgrades from analysts, maybe we still will.

Once acquisitions are digested, this company could generate $0.50-0.60/yr free cash flow.

$15-18 share price at 25-30x FcF.


Guessing that the erosion of operating margins is scaring some people out of their shares.

Gotta give these guys time to find efficiencies, digest acquisitions, cross-sell to customers, build up the business.   Doesn't happen in 3 months.


I figured the stock would be +$1.00 today, instead we are almost -$1.00.

Either I'm an idiot or the market has become skittish about this growth story.

Time will tell.
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