RE:Thin thin thinTheir revised guidance on August 14 shows that they expect total of 98 million FFO for the year when YTD value is only 41 million. So, they are saying that they should have 57 million in FFO for the second half.
Additionally, their CAPEX guidance is unchanged at 60 million and YTD is 34 million, meaning that they should only have 26 million in CAPEX for the second half.
So, on average, they should have 57 - 26 = 31 million / 2 = 15.5 million extra cash earned in Q3.
Their actual CAPEX was lower than the guidance for the past two years, so hopefully, that will add to the extra cash to pay back the debt. There should be offsetting negative for the lower oil price during the Q3, yet 60% of their production is hedged at around $50 for the year so that should not make too much of the difference.
They will probably announce the Q3 reporting date next Monday.
Stock will appreciate if they meet their guidance and expectations. Otherwise, someone or an institution with larger holding should file a class action lawsuit for lying about dividend being sustainable in their May statement only to cut it completely few months later and continuing to make false guidance.
I wonder if they are in discussion with any party regarding non-core asset sale.
If they are not meeting their guidance figures, it will be hard for the company to pay back the debt in time.
This stock should do fine if the company is doing what they are saying they will do. Otherwise, Waterous made mis-calculations and he should be regretting he bought the stake. He's lost about 100 million in value, 40% of 244 million he's invested.