Q4 earnings and 2015 guidance estimatesHello COS bulls,
I believe COS will meet the $0.21 per share 2014 Q4 earnings estimates of analysts. However, I am skeptical of a complete dividend slash. I believe COS will keep a nominal dividend to remain in large funds and to prevent a massive sell off. Keep in mind there are quite a few small caps that have not cut their dividend a second time as of yet. I believe today's greater than average volume, sell off, and current price represent the decrease in YOY earnings and a potential dividend cut. The market has already priced it in.
After earnings is annouced I expect minimal downside due to noise or even an intraday rally as per the last dividend cut.
With the 2015 guidance as is and using an average of $45 bbl for revenues, I predict annual earnings will be -$1.21 without factoring in tax refunds, which would give more upside. However, I believe crude may rebound to $50-60 mid-year as we will begin seeing the impact of US wells being shut down.