RE:RE:RE:RE:CRESCENT POINT CPG $20/SHARE = 2022It's funny that graph on page 19 says ~50% but the numbers clearly show they've hedged less than 50,000 b/p/d. I think they report condensate with the oil. That's how I read the text on page 34 of the April 2022 presentation.
It is my view that the ratings are, generally, low for the sector and don't reflect the price of oil or FCF. So, I don't think the target prices are done moving up. National Bank recently gave CPG a $20.
Frankly, I used to say $11-15 and that $20 was possible during an energy crisis and we're here now. Russia pushed timelines up and the market is still coming to grips with the consequences. It's considerably worse than most mainstream analysts are willing to admit. The worse it gets, the better it is for drillers.
BigJoe778 wrote: If you read my post I specifically stated it was 50% of thier OIL production that was hedged. The rest of their production is condensate. Also the values to which they have hedged for each quarter are under the graph on page 19 of the April presentation. With all that information available and the consensus average target price of $11.39 cdn you'd think they have a decent handle on where it's going. It's been no secret for a good number of months now how much FCF they're anticipating in 2022. You don't think that number isn't somewhat baked into the SP already?FCF is not the be all end all. Who knows what hell they will even do with their FCF. Outside of Kaybob, they certainly don't have the greatest track record in the last number of years. I stand by my comment of no chance in hell it sees $20/share this year. I think $12-15 is reasonable with even $15 being a stretch. If you're expecting more my honest humble opinion is you're going to be disappointed.