Q1 looks to me like 1.0 Debt/CF at StripQ4 Prices for CPG will get them to 1.0 Debt/CF buy the end of Q4.
Q3 Production (70 dollar, $3.59 AECO)
In Q3 CPG paid off 182 million in debt with 70-dollar oil and 3.59 AECO gas. They paid off 8.53% of their debt in Q3.
Q4 Production (80 dollar, $5 AECO)
In Q4 expect 80 U.S. oil and 5 AECO dollar gas. In Q4 they will likely pay off approximately 261 million of debt, 13.89% of their total debt, and fund an accelerated 225 million in Capex Program.
Net Debt should be around 1879 million at the (End of Q4). So safely saying in any case by the time, they report Q4 numbers in 2022 they will be 1.0X debt to cash flow at strip. If they divest any other properties, they will be well under the strip for debt/cf.
The balance sheet is fixed it looks like.
Even at strip in 2022 they would generate roughly 210 million a quarter in FCF, about 39 cents a share. With this cash they could implement 6 cents a month dividend, still have 50% of their FCF or about 100 million a quarter for (share buyback, and debt repayment)
At 80 dollar WTI and 4.50 gas CPG could have 1.85 share in FCF, with 134,000 boe of production.
With debt at 1.0/CF they will have lots of options to reward shareholders. They also will have the cash to do it.
IMHO