RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:LOOKING FORWARDGonatgo, thanks very much! It is so nice to see a member on this board who actually takes the time to analyze the data and then to share the results. Your time and effort is greatly appreciated. Remember most of the other stuff on this board s just noise and what you have done is important.
From your efforts we now we have an estimate of
Q1/2021 AFF: $0.23/share or $35M. Imagine if they could string 3 more of these quarters together! Here is what will be happening in 2021.
Production will be sustainable because in 2021 Q1 we had 50 million a day and condensate from 7 wells at 9-5 come on stream. In Q2 we will have the 6 condendsate rich wells at 3-32 coming on production to offset 9-5 declines. In Q3 we will most likely have the 10 well Pad at 1-8 coming on stream to further support declines. And the icing on top...Crew announced the 4-14 Pad (slide 24 in presentation) will be drilled next, which is an 8 well Pad with 2.5 mile long lateral sections.
On slide 24 that is the our new 4-14 Pad and below it is the recently drilled CNRL 10-9 Pad. Look at the length of our laterals compared to CNRL's. I guess in the Montney size does matter. From the release "Following the finalization of the 1-8 pad, the associated drilling rig is scheduled to move to our 4-14 pad, targeting gas and condensate in our ultra-condensate rich area at Greater Septimus."
This is going to be an amazing year for Crew. Approximately 12 month payouts on their capital. Production will soon be the appropriate size for their facilities and soon their transportation commitments will be more in-line as well.
Throw in an asset sale or two and this stock will rock.