TSX:CUS.DB.D - Post by User
Comment by
rollonon Jan 14, 2014 11:47am
251 Views
Post# 22089223
RE:RE:RE:RE:cost overun
RE:RE:RE:RE:cost overunThe market price is the market price. I agree. However when I get a news release simply stating that there has been a cost overrun of 40% I need more facts to make an intelligent decision as a shareholder. What does this imply in terms of IRR, NPV and cash flow. Insiders know but we as shareholders are left in the dark. Several years ago I came up with a ratio to give shareholders some guidance. Rather than fundamental or technical analysis this ratio zero's in on sentiment. I call it the CE ratio. (clown effects) Essentially this ratio rates management and assigns a specific clown behaviour factor based on current events. The stock value is then adjusted to reflect it's true value prior to the clown like behaviour. CE= current share price / Clown factor - 100 This gives us the true value of the stock prior to clown effects. Based on this latest release I assign the following clown factors: Mr Kubera 5 Mr McLellan 5 Mr. Lacara 5 This gives us a total clown factor of 15. Plugging this into the ratio calculation we get the following: CE=6.50 / ( 15-100 ) =7.64 Therefore the stock is worth 7.64 prior to clown effects. As time goes on the factor can be increases up or down based on what these gentlemen come up with. The maximum total factor can be 100 and more directors or officers can be added as time goes on. For now I would zero in on the above three. If we get another clown release, the factor could be doubled or assessed at 30. This implies that the share price would then be discounted 30% from it's price prior to the clown behaviour we witnessed today. In this case it would result in a discounted CE at 5.34