CANEXUS CORP 6.5 PCT DEBS T.CUS.DB.D

RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:Seeking Alpha Article - Canexus

[ocean112]

Similar to Calgary, you've stated a $200M valuation is likely for ChlorAlkali. How do you arrive at $1/share possibility or something even close?  Why is it so hard to translate all this great analysis to a price target of $1 a share or so?  If you are saying Canexus should get a 6x or 7x multiple after paying down the debt with asset sales to a reasonable level, with the largest sodicum chlorate facility in the world, stable Brazil EBITDA, etc -  then say so - cuz that brings the price target down to $1.00, but then a 6x or 7x multiple for a stable company with reasonable debt isn't reasonable - but yes - that is just my measly opinion and I will call it that.  

Yes - I am not as sophisticated as some so I have to borrow reports from the brokerages, or seeking alpha guy - and try to work through thier analysis to see how they arrive at thier price targets.  Brokerages state assumptions - plausible or otherwise.  RBC is on record saying CUS can hit $1.00 a share (downside scenario) if they dump Chlor Alkali for nothing - but what the seeking alpha article argues is why would they do that if shareholder value is maximized by keeping the facility (btw - he/she just posted new analysis to defend exactly that - arguing Canexus should walk away for anything less that $260M using price target analysis). All I am saying is I appreciate when someone is willing to state a price target based on analysis - then defend it.   I as an unsophisticated shareholder can then decide if what they say holds water, or not.  

I will say - you and Calgary have actually helped me immensely to decide to ride this out.  For that, I thank you.  By doging the question of what would it take to get this to $1.00 a share, I'm actually feeling a lot better that there isn't a case to be made after asset sales.  Sometimes no information is good information.  At this price level, I might as well pick a horse that makes the best case  (ie.  SA article) and ride it out.