CVE my top pick right now - my thesis
Oil prices going through roof. But inflation will drive up steel and labor costs for most companies wanting to keep production flat or increase it. So cost of each new barrel of oil (from inflationary pressures) will keep ramping, eventually eating in to profits.
CVE is different. Their SAGD fields are all drilled and they can keep production flat for years with minimal capital investment and less exposure to cost increases. They do not need new steel and their labor force will stay constant. Though wages will go up, they do not need to add new workers for big condtruction projects or for drilling and completing new wells. Even for White Rose, a big conventional off shore project, 60% of costs are already incurred and the cost to move to production is not much different thand ecommissioning cost would be, so a no brainer.
The commodity that they do need is natural gas to produce the steam. BUT they have ample supplies of their own natural gas production so it should be a wash. As natural gas prices go up they make more money on the natural gas they sell to themselves to produce the steam, offsetting the increased cost to produce oil from their SAGD fields.
They also are benefiting greatly on the refining side with huge 1.2.3 crack spreads currently.
So my thesis is that more of the increased revenues will go to profits rather than increased costs, relative to more traditional oil and gas producers.