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Concordia Healthcare Corp. T.CXR.R



TSX:CXR.R - Post by User

Comment by Marcel7on Mar 08, 2016 7:41am
105 Views
Post# 24633308

RE:RE:Not the Shorts

RE:RE:Not the ShortsThe daily short volume is available here after market close (typically before 8 pm EST for all):

https://regsho.finra.org/regsho-Index.html

https://www.batstrading.com/market_data/shortsales/

I calculate the percentage of daily volume that is short from here, by summing up for all markets. You also get the short exempt volume from the Nasdaq and NYSE, which shows the short volume sold into a downtick, which can give you a good indication if shorts selling is driving the price of a stock down.

Overall I do not get the daily short interest on a daily basis, but rather try to estimate what it is based on historical ratios and the current volume.

A couple things to remember, there is always some natural short activity from market makers providing liquidity, however, if the maximum that this could be at is 50% (ie. all people that bought shares had a market maker sell them a short share to provide them with liquidity).. Anything above 50% would necessarily mean an increase in total short interest. In reality this percentage is smaller, and I estimate it from the historical.

The second thing to be aware of, is for a cross listed stock especially, there is more volume in a given day than is reported on these exchanges. This does provide enough data typically to estimate the overall change in short position.

Here is all the short data compiled to the beginning of August for CXRX:

Comp_Sym Date SHV_A VOL_A SXV_A %
CXRX 2016-03-07 98300 156386 3000 62.9%
CXRX 2016-03-04 51865 86203 500 60.2%
CXRX 2016-03-03 36734 60531 1450 60.7%
CXRX 2016-03-02 33393 86024 1205 38.8%
CXRX 2016-03-01 61424 104712 0 58.7%
CXRX 2016-02-29 84741 104328 300 81.2%
CXRX 2016-02-26 44797 68826 100 65.1%
CXRX 2016-02-25 51881 80902 200 64.1%
CXRX 2016-02-24 69394 124425 0 55.8%
CXRX 2016-02-23 53526 126252 0 42.4%
CXRX 2016-02-22 91894 176675 600 52.0%
CXRX 2016-02-19 44020 77480 900 56.8%
CXRX 2016-02-18 43743 63875 1600 68.5%
CXRX 2016-02-17 60601 116679 215 51.9%
CXRX 2016-02-16 45887 75061 700 61.1%
CXRX 2016-02-12 48849 91703 1219 53.3%
CXRX 2016-02-11 70964 135060 623 52.5%
CXRX 2016-02-10 49063 67106 1670 73.1%
CXRX 2016-02-09 141893 210971 13210 67.3%
CXRX 2016-02-08 58096 87870 2213 66.1%
CXRX 2016-02-05 51240 89094 300 57.5%
CXRX 2016-02-04 72707 102524 1750 70.9%
CXRX 2016-02-03 77183 123026 1627 62.7%
CXRX 2016-02-02 52938 93015 450 56.9%
CXRX 2016-02-01 77539 108583 2281 71.4%
CXRX 2016-01-29 148871 218331 2900 68.2%
CXRX 2016-01-28 70926 170881 1100 41.5%
CXRX 2016-01-27 46587 72230 500 64.5%
CXRX 2016-01-26 59705 70887 400 84.2%
CXRX 2016-01-25 94524 104050 300 90.8%
CXRX 2016-01-22 83950 109335 600 76.8%
CXRX 2016-01-21 67317 91181 300 73.8%
CXRX 2016-01-20 199772 289782 1920 68.9%
CXRX 2016-01-19 126273 171159 1000 73.8%
CXRX 2016-01-15 124685 189072 2313 65.9%
CXRX 2016-01-14 110107 163880 1500 67.2%
CXRX 2016-01-13 164733 409382 2475 40.2%
CXRX 2016-01-12 52102 181806 630 28.7%
CXRX 2016-01-11 160637 303883 500 52.9%
CXRX 2016-01-08 107601 207797 200 51.8%
CXRX 2016-01-07 54041 109011 28 49.6%
CXRX 2016-01-06 68141 98806 400 69.0%
CXRX 2016-01-05 48974 92239 402 53.1%
CXRX 2016-01-04 56756 113051 400 50.2%
CXRX 2015-12-31 26236 46138 300 56.9%
CXRX 2015-12-30 19117 33810 294 56.5%
CXRX 2015-12-29 47910 72784 200 65.8%
CXRX 2015-12-28 54874 83232 0 65.9%
CXRX 2015-12-24 35187 86486 312 40.7%
CXRX 2015-12-23 45045 70747 1492 63.7%
CXRX 2015-12-22 37791 62336 2900 60.6%
CXRX 2015-12-21 107777 175295 15342 61.5%
CXRX 2015-12-18 96588 189598 1000 50.9%
CXRX 2015-12-17 54437 118878 600 45.8%
CXRX 2015-12-16 65133 155456 1500 41.9%
CXRX 2015-12-15 57590 118917 2143 48.4%
CXRX 2015-12-14 67833 141759 261 47.9%
CXRX 2015-12-11 31482 50306 1100 62.6%
CXRX 2015-12-10 89441 180571 950 49.5%
CXRX 2015-12-09 46275 69824 432 66.3%
CXRX 2015-12-08 47814 142166 100 33.6%
CXRX 2015-12-07 61703 134117 400 46.0%
CXRX 2015-12-04 40995 100104 500 41.0%
CXRX 2015-12-03 38561 110537 1300 34.9%
CXRX 2015-12-02 38397 73443 404 52.3%
CXRX 2015-12-01 64684 151572 2074 42.7%
CXRX 2015-11-30 48682 88260 1000 55.2%
CXRX 2015-11-27 10908 56444 500 19.3%
CXRX 2015-11-25 42376 118207 1300 35.8%
CXRX 2015-11-24 43165 91736 635 47.1%
CXRX 2015-11-23 102096 197847 7709 51.6%
CXRX 2015-11-20 82592 189119 1460 43.7%
CXRX 2015-11-19 144762 252088 3900 57.4%
CXRX 2015-11-18 113667 184934 2437 61.5%
CXRX 2015-11-17 26761 46689 600 57.3%
CXRX 2015-11-16 90527 163523 1187 55.4%
CXRX 2015-11-13 438231 755420 8179 58.0%
CXRX 2015-11-12 53596 313485 825 17.1%
CXRX 2015-11-11 35831 68485 900 52.3%
CXRX 2015-11-10 85137 119183 5200 71.4%
CXRX 2015-11-09 66778 105261 400 63.4%
CXRX 2015-11-06 40259 88948 1300 45.3%
CXRX 2015-11-05 141823 205177 7869 69.1%
CXRX 2015-11-04 122101 203569 2810 60.0%
CXRX 2015-11-03 216655 282988 1600 76.6%
CXRX 2015-11-02 52465 130628 4140 40.2%
CXRX 2015-10-30 81425 144135 5900 56.5%
CXRX 2015-10-29 116093 209767 3400 55.3%
CXRX 2015-10-28 67663 135450 200 50.0%
CXRX 2015-10-27 210945 336400 23106 62.7%
CXRX 2015-10-26 239988 415788 100 57.7%
CXRX 2015-10-23 269382 738550 7145 36.5%
CXRX 2015-10-22 299513 794582 46274 37.7%
CXRX 2015-10-21 607004 1882003 74166 32.3%
CXRX 2015-10-20 241106 510214 27767 47.3%
CXRX 2015-10-19 90502 132313 1700 68.4%
CXRX 2015-10-16 327083 528033 36596 61.9%
CXRX 2015-10-15 92575 150553 5525 61.5%
CXRX 2015-10-14 88268 142826 1730 61.8%
CXRX 2015-10-13 95263 144021 3921 66.1%
CXRX 2015-10-12 33520 53566 0 62.6%
CXRX 2015-10-09 74867 177968 4725 42.1%
CXRX 2015-10-08 82766 161164 2255 51.4%
CXRX 2015-10-07 19679 54988 1112 35.8%
CXRX 2015-10-06 56305 151566 3272 37.1%
CXRX 2015-10-05 46971 101172 2586 46.4%
CXRX 2015-10-02 25755 51535 0 50.0%
CXRX 2015-10-01 44970 93673 0 48.0%
CXRX 2015-09-30 132886 287957 12159 46.1%
CXRX 2015-09-29 105365 333695 9227 31.6%
CXRX 2015-09-28 169794 588839 8682 28.8%
CXRX 2015-09-25 633251 1967325 10617 32.2%
CXRX 2015-09-24 5421 6761 0 80.2%
CXRX 2015-09-23 2930 4287 0 68.3%
CXRX 2015-09-22 2005 4941 0 40.6%
CXRX 2015-09-21 2766 5646 0 49.0%
CXRX 2015-09-18 743 3725 0 19.9%
CXRX 2015-09-17 1738 2291 0 75.9%
CXRX 2015-09-16 803 3688 0 21.8%
CXRX 2015-09-15 1193 2240 0 53.3%
CXRX 2015-09-14 2450 4062 0 60.3%
CXRX 2015-09-11 2900 4554 0 63.7%
CXRX 2015-09-10 2221 4934 0 45.0%
CXRX 2015-09-09 3220 9339 481 34.5%
CXRX 2015-09-08 10976 37596 1488 29.2%
CXRX 2015-09-04 300 1700 0 17.6%
CXRX 2015-09-03 1885 9878 0 19.1%
CXRX 2015-09-02 1675 2226 0 75.2%
CXRX 2015-09-01 816 1161 0 70.3%
CXRX 2015-08-31 4991 5901 0 84.6%
CXRX 2015-08-28 1676 4101 0 40.9%
CXRX 2015-08-27 3296 6047 0 54.5%
CXRX 2015-08-26 300 2517 0 11.9%
CXRX 2015-08-25 66 1382 62 4.8%
CXRX 2015-08-24 1076 4024 86 26.7%
CXRX 2015-08-21 984 3380 0 29.1%
CXRX 2015-08-20 4977 8360 0 59.5%
CXRX 2015-08-19 1507 5611 0 26.9%
CXRX 2015-08-18 4242 6429 0 66.0%
CXRX 2015-08-17 3289 4862 0 67.6%
CXRX 2015-08-14 2015 4777 50 42.2%
CXRX 2015-08-13 20549 45203 0 45.5%
CXRX 2015-08-12 6668 11813 0 56.4%
CXRX 2015-08-11 1664 9337 0 17.8%
CXRX 2015-08-10 6756 13602 0 49.7%
CXRX 2015-08-07 1338 2506 0 53.4%
CXRX 2015-08-06 2070 3116 0 66.4%
CXRX 2015-08-05 1650 6275 0 26.3%
CXRX 2015-08-04 2669 7604 0 35.1%
CXRX 2015-08-03 0 100 0 0.0%

This is then compared to the overall short positions here:

https://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/cxrx/short-interest

GLTA,

Marcel

Stockcoach1 wrote:
Marcel7 wrote: Pretty busy with work last week and this week, but managed to take some tonight to time to analyze the daily short data today and have come to the following conclusions:

1. Today's price increase was almost certainly not due to short covering. In fact the net short position for CXRX probably increased today.

2. The overall short position in CXRX is still increasing, the next released Nasdaq short position data will likely show another build for the period about to be released on March 9 (for Feb 29 settlement date). It will also likely show an even larger increase for the next period (up to Mar 15 settlement date), barring large short covering in the next few days.

This is based on looking at the daily short data and extrapolating how this impacts the overall short position.

The short volume as a percentage of total volume for today, March 7, for all reporting exchanges (Nasdaq, NYSE, and BATS exchanges) was 62.9%. This almost certainly indicates a build in short interest. For the period from the Feb 29 settlement date to today inclusive, short volume as 61.9% of total volume on these exchanges. This compares with 62.5% and 64.5% for the periods with short interest builds of 510,762 and 534,225 respectively. The period ends on March 10th trading day (March 15 settlement date), so unless we see a reversal, if this trend continues we may be looking at another similar build.

The short volume as a percentage of total volume for the 2 weeks ending Feb 29 shows an average short volume as percentage of total volume of 54.8%. This compares with 55.5% and 51.0% for the periods with short interest builds of 199,800 and 278,686 respectively.

My best guess for the short interest build for the period ending Feb 29 is 255,000, but the range of possible values is likely from 100,000 to 340,000.

Anyhow, I am not saying this build is good or bad, simply that the current rally is not being fueled by shorts running for the exits. In my mind this is encouraging, as the price is showing resilience in the face of what is likely increasing short interest. If or when the shorts do start heading for the exits we might expect a significant rally.

GLTA,

Marcel

P.S. If anyone is interested in the raw data message me and I can provide you with the daily numbers so you can do your own analysis.







 

Can you please provide the source of the short volume as a percentage of total daily volume of all the exchanges? I have never seen short positions posted on a daily basis, let alone as a percentage of daily volume. Thank you.


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