Concordia Healthcare Corp. T.CXR.R

Not the Shorts

[Marcel7]

Pretty busy with work last week and this week, but managed to take some tonight to time to analyze the daily short data today and have come to the following conclusions:

1. Today's price increase was almost certainly not due to short covering. In fact the net short position for CXRX probably increased today.

2. The overall short position in CXRX is still increasing, the next released Nasdaq short position data will likely show another build for the period about to be released on March 9 (for Feb 29 settlement date). It will also likely show an even larger increase for the next period (up to Mar 15 settlement date), barring large short covering in the next few days.

This is based on looking at the daily short data and extrapolating how this impacts the overall short position.

The short volume as a percentage of total volume for today, March 7, for all reporting exchanges (Nasdaq, NYSE, and BATS exchanges) was 62.9%. This almost certainly indicates a build in short interest. For the period from the Feb 29 settlement date to today inclusive, short volume as 61.9% of total volume on these exchanges. This compares with 62.5% and 64.5% for the periods with short interest builds of 510,762 and 534,225 respectively. The period ends on March 10th trading day (March 15 settlement date), so unless we see a reversal, if this trend continues we may be looking at another similar build.

The short volume as a percentage of total volume for the 2 weeks ending Feb 29 shows an average short volume as percentage of total volume of 54.8%. This compares with 55.5% and 51.0% for the periods with short interest builds of 199,800 and 278,686 respectively.

My best guess for the short interest build for the period ending Feb 29 is 255,000, but the range of possible values is likely from 100,000 to 340,000.

Anyhow, I am not saying this build is good or bad, simply that the current rally is not being fueled by shorts running for the exits. In my mind this is encouraging, as the price is showing resilience in the face of what is likely increasing short interest. If or when the shorts do start heading for the exits we might expect a significant rally.

GLTA,

Marcel

P.S. If anyone is interested in the raw data message me and I can provide you with the daily numbers so you can do your own analysis.

[Stockcoach1]

Can you please provide the source of the short volume as a percentage of total daily volume of all the exchanges? I have never seen short positions posted on a daily basis, let alone as a percentage of daily volume. Thank you.

[Marcel7]

The daily short volume is available here after market close (typically before 8 pm EST for all): https://regsho.finra.org/regsho-Index.html https://www.batstrading.com/market_data/shortsales/ I calculate the percentage of daily volume that is short from here, by summing up for all markets. You also get the short exempt volume from the Nasdaq and NYSE, which shows the short volume sold into a

[fdfd12]

what does this mean Marcel 20160307|CXRX|56366|3000|88544|Q

[Marcel7]

First is obviously the date, March 7, 2016 and the symbol. Then it's the short volume, 56366. Next is the short exempt volume, this is a short sale into a downtick (3000). If you see a large short exempt volume it means that short volume is likely driving the price down directly. For a good example look at October 21 and other dates around the short attack. Next is the overall volume (88544

[fdfd12]

OK thanks Marcel. I understand now.

[YouLose]

LOL... so the PUMPER KING Marcel7-11 himself emerges with a data dump and hours of work to tell us what I was telling everybody ALL day yesterday. IT WASN'T THE SHORTS!!!!! Of course he is received different than me and embraced by the pump gang rather than dismissed and accused of being notwrong. I love how even when providing info that SCREAMS RUN AWAY FROM THIS STOCK he can't help but

[notwrong]

This post has been removed in accordance with Community Policy

[notwrong]

This post has been removed in accordance with Community Policy

[Pj1958]

NUTBAR.....this goes to speak to your character.... Promising to leave this board , but your boss and your mom won't let you.... You have to pay your mom at least for the electricity... So you have to keep your minimum wage job to keep pumping the short story

[notwrong]

This post has been removed in accordance with Community Policy

[Lumberfeverlong]

To Notwrong:  Stop talking to yourself you moron.  For all those unsuspecting retail investors you profess to protect: Notwrong and YouLose are the same person. 

[BuIIPhighter]

This post has been removed in accordance with Community Policy

[sunshine7]

Thanks Marcel for the heads up. I see the premarket bid/asks at high but matching levels which often portends a short attack. Watch for strong open followed by a raid on stop loss. First, remove all stop losses and second have strong resolve that SP will return. This happened many times during the previous rally making good trading but losses for some. High beta for a reason... and its not

[cavinsin]

Be careful, and think again, if you are thinking of selling into this rally, don't listen to some jokers on this board, this rally is for real, I strongly believe. Any one that has sold up to this point will be kicking himself in the but, a year from now.. to many bullshit posters on this board, that don't know what they are talking about, I believe we will by pass VRX P/S, this year.. see

[Stockcoach1]

Thanks Marcel for sharing.

[adamchess]

hi Marcel, thanks so much for all the information and insights you are providing. However, I am now as confused as ever about these short sales trades. If the MM can be doing this on a regular basis, it complicates things unless there are some rules for the MM that prevents him from going over a certain percentage, etc. at the end of the day? Can he be net short at the end of the day and if so by

[adamchess]

Sorry folks. I was a page behind the discussion. Cheers.

[Marcel7]

Hi Adam, We can estimate the percentage short volume that is generated by this normal MM activity based by looking at total short volume over a period and comparing to the build or dip in overall short position. For most stocks MM activity is the majority of the short volume. This can then be used to estimate the amount of true short volume (amount NOT generated by normal MMs creating liquidity)

[adamchess]

Thanks again, Marcel. But my further question is that of the short sales during the day that are not attributable to the MM, how many of those are covered the same day and how to know how many of the previous outstanding shorts are not covered on any given day? Presumably, the shorts trade in and out the same as the traders who do not use short sells. Adam