Concordia Healthcare Corp. T.CXR.R

RE:RE:RE:RE:Q2 numbers

[wallop13]

I'm expecting an EBITDA revision from CXR. Maybe 580 to 610M. TD thinks they will do 603.6M (down from 627.9M). 

wallop13 wrote: Thanks. I'm thinking that $7.60 is 2017 adjusted EPS. Q2 $1.26 EPS seems low, they should beat that.  I can't see TD's revised adjusted EPS, only EBITDA. They are using FX rate of 1.31. Here is TD's post Brexit comments.

We are revising our Target price to US$37 from US$45 to reflect the impact of Brexit related headwinds. F/X is our primary concern, along with increased uncertainty regarding future price increases in the UK market.

We have revised our F2016 and F2017 EBITDA estimates by 3.9% and 6.9% respectively; largely reflecting the 13.7% decline in the value of GBP that has occurred since November 2015 when management provided guidance.

Key variables have changed significantly since management disclosed the strategic review process in April 2016. While we continue to view the stock as undervalued, we lack the visibility to assign a probability to a prospective takeout bid.

TD Investment Conclusion
Our BUY rating is based on expectations that the AMCo assets (particularly the pipeline) can fuel low single-digit organic revenue growth through F2017, despite the softer GBP outlook. In our view, Concordia's growth prospects and its discount valuation continue to comprise an attractive proposition for investors with a 12 month horizon. We are maintaining our BUY rating.

puma1 wrote: Wallop13 - al lthe numbers are adj EPS - sorry about that - CDN$ EPS of $7.60 average over 2016 & 2017.

wallop13 wrote: Puma, I think that's adjusted EPS (not EBITDA). What's the Q2 EBITDA? Q3 and Q4 if you have it. What's that 7.60 a share? Is that EBITDA?

puma1 wrote: as mentioned, RBC released their Preview and they expect CXR to report $US 1.26 of adj EBITDA for the quarter. consensus is $US 1.49.

you can see the BNN headline already -


anyway, for anyone who cares about the facts, the walkaway from the Preview is that they are still projecting the company to AVERAGE CDN$ 7.60 PER SHARE A YEAR..

we are trading at a 3.15 times multiple which is about a 5th of the market multiple and a 3rd the pharma averages.