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Concordia Healthcare Corp. T.CXR.R



TSX:CXR.R - Post by User

Comment by wallop13on Aug 13, 2016 9:25am
370 Views
Post# 25138574

RE:Those spelling doom and gloom

RE:Those spelling doom and gloomHard to put a value on this stock now. They had adjusted EBITDA of 283m already this year. That's fine. The real issue is that they now forecast 227M to 257m in H2. That means adjusted EBITDA for 2017 will likely be 452m to 512m. Assuming they don't have any more "unexpected competition"or any issues with the FDA on Donnatal and that the GBP stays above 1.31. With a 270m interest payment the situation is extremely precarious. A sale seems like the only way out here. I hope they can pull that off for those that still remain.
bullchart wrote: Fundamentally this looks bad but I am expecting this to recover at least back to 23-24 dollars. Do we forget VXR? Loss of 336.9 million Q4 and drops from 93.40 to 44.12 (55%) on 4 million shares and finally bottomed 3 days later at 32.35 trading 5.9 million the day before. Less than a month the shares were 55% higher. 

CXR takes a 570 million Q2 hit , ends up at a 12.45 low on 5.5 million shares and down from 22.15 day before high or down 40%. Until the real low is found Mon or Tues, I expect 15% high low spreads which equal $$$ for traders. Caution though. CXR traded 5.5 million last Oct 21 after a 790 million note offering and then ran back up 50% in 3 days. Interesting we get this same 5.5 million shares trading. We will soon know if that 5.5 million traded was shorts covering as they did last Oct.  For sure those playing puts or shorting since Jan have made big bucks. 

CXR had a low of 6.50 on it's open Dec 27, 2013. Because CXR did not recover the gap Sept 25, I would not be too sure it does not recover this one at this level. For sure, come Monday the Sharks will be very active manipulating the bids and offers. 


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