RE:RE:RE:For what its worth - RE: Thompson InterviewI hate to break it to you, but a legacy portfolio in decline and without the moat of patent protection isn't going to command a premium. Add that their highest selling drug isn't even Fda approved and its even less rosy. If anything they've proven their forecasting numbers cant be relied upon. The acquiring company would have to buy at a signifigant discount to the multiple they trade at in order to make it accretive. I personally don't think the assets are worth the debt, let alone a premium on the current shareprice plus a premium.
colt451 wrote: 1. Had they not guided down the share price would not have collapsed to $12 much less $8, and a takeout at say $12 today clearly could not have happened with the share price at $20+.
2. A legacy portfolio does not receive a 5X EBITDA multiple, current peer companies trade at 7.5-9X EBITDA. But if you have a single example of any company, including CXR, that trades at 5X EBITDA please feel free to share. If CXR had ever traded at 5X EBITDA the stock would have been at $0.
3. If you're long you hope they either (a) do a debt-for-equity swap like Whiting Petroleum (b) merger with a cash rich biotech which will provide future growth opportunities or (c) gets acquired.
4. The debt of equiy swap is certianly attractive as the debt is trading at 80 cents on the dollar and Concordia has no immediate ability to engage in a buyback.
Craigbad wrote: Had they not guided down, i might be worried about a takeout, but they did, as was expected. They also giftwrapped it with the cfo leaving and a massive asset writedown. The debt didn't get written down with the assets though. A legacy portfolio would do good to fetch 5 times ebitda, but the debt is 6.4. If you're long, the only hope is they can crank things up over the next few years and get the debt under 5 times, but there's alot of landmines on this path and probably better places to put your money to work.
colt451 wrote: I for one was looking forward to hearing the CEO speak on the company and at least simply affirm guidance. He did not.
Instead he is "travelling." The bear case is that he is ducking interviews etc. The bull case is that he is spending the weekend finanalizing a M&A that he had hoped would be ready for this week.
I'm not even going to give Thompson the benefit of the doubt that he is travelling on Concordia business, but I sure as he** hope he is.