Concordia Healthcare Corp. T.CXR.R

For what its worth - RE: Thompson Interview

[colt451]

I for one was looking forward to hearing the CEO speak on the company and at least simply affirm guidance. He did not. 

Instead he is "travelling." The bear case is that he is ducking interviews etc. The bull case is that he is spending the weekend finanalizing a M&A that he had hoped would be ready for this week. 

I'm not even going to give Thompson the benefit of the doubt that he is travelling on Concordia business, but I sure as he** hope he is.

[LaticelnExile]

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[colt451]

When news first broke that Thompson was doing an interview I assumed it was because the strategic review was completed, one way or another. Because otherwise he could talk about very little in the interview and it would clearly do more harm than good to appear on TV and say nothing. So if there was in fact a delay in the strategic review, or the recent share price drop has attracted a new party

[Hockeyz]

Colt:  I think your analysis seems very logical.  Why would the CEO (ie. Mark Thomson/ MT) agree to a BNN interview in the first place?  It would make the most sense that there was going to be some sort of strategic review announcement.  This makes sense since the share price had dropped much more than would be expected from the Q2'2016 results/guidance.  But, since

[LaticelnExile]

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[DanKwong1958]

The CEO was best to stay silent with all the pending law suits.  Everything that he has said in the past and the press releases (including the one where they say Brexit did not have an affect on operations and then they do a guidance revision because of pound currency)  isbeing used as evidence against the company and against him.  So best to stay quiet for him because if he says

[Hockeyz]

So Lati:  Why do you think MT agreed to do the interview in the first place?  Putting myself in his shoes, the only way I would do the interview is if I had some positive news to release before the interview and/or could discuss the strategic review.  

[LaticelnExile]

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[Hockeyz]

Lati:  Yes, you seem to go out on a limb quite a bit, in fact sometimes even a long long limb.  But, you have been correct so far that the stock will go down.  I just do not think there is much MT could even discuss at this time in an interview (without any new news).  And he sure is not going to talk about the bad insider information he supposedly gave McCreath (another long

[LaticelnExile]

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[argentia77]

Concordia's business model was concocted in Mark Thompson's living room in 2012 and is (was?) based on a taking on huge debt to buy "spent oranges" as one analyst put it, and squeezing them for any remaining juice. Hardly sustainable if you think about it. But combined with questionable accounting practices and slick lawyer talk, it made Thompson and some directors a lot of money

[TOMMY1]

He probably needs some time away in his private jet to relax and unwind. It's been a tough few months for him watching the stock price fall daily to new 52 week lows. Pretty sure that is all he has done over the past few months, then again, I think that may even be giving him too much credit (sounds too much like work for him). It is apparent he is out to look after himself only - shareholders

[Craigbad]

Had they not guided down, i might be worried about a takeout, but they did, as was expected. They also giftwrapped it with the cfo leaving and a massive asset writedown. The debt didn't get written down with the assets though. A legacy portfolio would do good to fetch 5 times ebitda, but the debt is 6.4. If you're long, the only hope is they can crank things up over the next few years and

[colt451]

1. Had they not guided down the share price would not have collapsed to $12 much less $8, and a takeout at say $12 today clearly could not have happened with the share price at $20+.  2. A legacy portfolio does not receive a 5X EBITDA multiple, current peer companies trade at 7.5-9X EBITDA. But if you have a single example of any company, including CXR, that trades at 5X EBITDA please feel

[Craigbad]

I hate to break it to you, but a legacy portfolio in decline and without the moat of patent protection isn't going to command a premium. Add that their highest selling drug isn't even Fda approved and its even less rosy. If anything they've proven their forecasting numbers cant be relied upon. The acquiring company would have to buy at a signifigant discount to the multiple they trade