Concordia Healthcare Corp. T.CXR.R

RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:Is the earn out not a good thing?

[TheGreatKazoo]

Explosif!!!!  BOOM!

I wish I was shorting this stock now. When will weekend trading start?  hehehe

GenericAdvocate wrote:

LaticelnExile wrote:
Although management manintains on the Q2 call that business is driven mainly by volume, and not price, the data shows otherwise. The NHS Prescription Cost Analysis data available on public portals shows that volume is not a significant driver of growth for AMCO's top drugs:  Levothyrozine Sodium, Nitrofurantoin, Predrisolone, Carbimazole, Liothyronine Sodium, Fusidic Acid, Erythromycin, Co-Codamol and Trianylcyromine Sulfate.  The volume declines in the legacy business are even worse.  The company has already reported year over year revenue declines for Donnatal of 31% driven by a decline in volumes.  On the Covis side, they have already admitted to pressures from Plaquenil and Nilandron, but forensic reports drawing from Symphony data show that the Covis performance has declined by 40%. I would expect write-downs on Dyrenium and Zonegram, two other key drugs in this portfolio that are not recovering in volume.

Most frensic reports are projecting a continued organic decline and the expectation that AMCo's need to disporportionalely rely on price hikes to drive growth is unsustainable.  There is not enough visibility into the new pipeline of products that management touts  - and the market believes that they are nothing but a game of strip the brand and relaunch as a generic, along with reformulations (such as offering a tablet form when they already have a capsule, dosage changes (going from 150 mg to 200 mg, for example) and repacks. 

I am part of an advocacy group and the fda is fasttracking generics that are more advanced than Concordia's old drugs.  My focus is on making generics affordable to all Americans, but I have never seen such a lack of disclosure in a drug company before who has nothing to hide (just as in Valeant where a subpeona need to be issued.)  The law firms are doing most of the work on Donnatal, and it is becoming clear from the amendments being filed that the company has not properly disclosed the regulatory status of Donnatal to investors.  I don't know about the two drugs you have mentioned here, but I will guarantee a write-down in Donnatal to come.