RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:KRENSAVAGE COMING UP ON BNN ... NOW If anyone thinks that shareholders would get anything more than 5 or 10% of current equity in any future restructuring, they were and are completely delusional. All debt ranks ahead of equity whether it is secured or not. The only stakeholders negatively affected by this financing in a restricting scenario are the unsecured bonds, but even those traded higher last week. They did because the company's prospects improved with this financing. The risk of default decreased substantially. I'm not invested for that eventuality. I'm invested becuase I think this company is worth multiples of where it is now. No one is taking the equity from us with this financing. We only lose our equity if the company fails and hard to see the company failing with its current margins and $500M in the bank. They have plenty of runway to adjust and grow. Trying to short to zero now is the same as someone hoping the stock would keep on rising indefinitely when it was over $100. Both are dumb and greedy investment strategies.
MustardTiger88 wrote: I'm long like you, Lumber, but having a first lien lender doesn't bode well for the future of Concordia. I understand the cash injection helps but it's under the guarantee that if the company goes belly up the lenders get their money back first. This isn't lending in confidence, this is lending because they know they'll get their cash back, plus interest, regardless of the circumstances.
Lumberfeverlong wrote: Do you think second graders are reading your idiotic rants. Your post deserves no more of a response.
FullReversal wrote: Or, more likely, current debt holders are going "holly moly, how can these "Senior Secured First Lien Notes" (new debt) come in front of us?!
Can we do anything to block it? No! It's closing sometime next week and it appears they already have a non-public money lined up. How convenient.
Being "first lien" means these Notes holders will own the non-Amco assets. Force default, keep the entire portfolio and flush debt and shareholders. Pure and simple.
If this game theory is reality, the win is already determined.
Bondholders and shareholders have already lost.
Checkmate even before most current owners realize they are in a complex chess game with no moves to escape.
But all of this is pure speculation based on various credible inputs and valid theories.
As you say, it's really a "black box" right now. The puppeteers have still not been identified but there's some pretty bold moves being made. It won't save shareholders in my view and it will be interesting to see how many get fool with the fake gold ("adjusted EBITDA" based numbers) being pumped.
Even with the years of self invesing experience, I don't know how to play this at the current point of time. "Watching from a distance" seems to be the best but I want to jump in big but there's just too many red flags to go long.
I'd love to see options traders lay out their strategy from here.