RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:KRENSAVAGE COMING UP ON BNN ... NOW I hate having to take time away from my family to respond to your idiotic freakn posts. How in God's name will they. It be able to make the Cinven payments with at least $500M in the bank? U r a complet moron!
quote=FullReversal]I am glad to see some investors "get it". This is
Senior Secured First Lien Notes getting priority over everyone and going after the only assets left once Cinven reclaims Amco. The deed as not been tranferred and will simply revert back from the holding agent to Cinven it would appears.
Please challenge me on this longs, don't say this is grade school material. It's in the filings which aren't easy to get at. It's a bit of effort but well worth it. I'm happy to assist anyone.
The Deed to Amco won't be transferred without the payments completed. Payments have been deferred for a reason....
And why, you ask, aren't notes available on the public market? Well, could that be because they want to limit them in numbers and distribution?
With the severe cash crunch I'm seeing, the remaining of this will crash going into February 2017. That's in less than 5 months away before shareholders and bondholders see their remaining value evaporate into one of the most interested market play of 2016 (along with bigger brother Valeant).
At least VRX appears to be a real pharma. This M&A pile of old pills is "something else".
But what are possible blindsides for short sellers? Especially anyone contemplating entering at these $6 prices?
MustardTiger88 wrote: I'm long like you, Lumber, but having a first lien lender doesn't bode well for the future of Concordia. I understand the cash injection helps but it's under the guarantee that if the company goes belly up the lenders get their money back first. This isn't lending in confidence, this is lending because they know they'll get their cash back, plus interest, regardless of the circumstances.
Lumberfeverlong wrote: Do you think second graders are reading your idiotic rants. Your post deserves no more of a response.
FullReversal wrote: Or, more likely, current debt holders are going "holly moly, how can these "Senior Secured First Lien Notes" (new debt) come in front of us?!
Can we do anything to block it? No! It's closing sometime next week and it appears they already have a non-public money lined up. How convenient.
Being "first lien" means these Notes holders will own the non-Amco assets. Force default, keep the entire portfolio and flush debt and shareholders. Pure and simple.
If this game theory is reality, the win is already determined.
Bondholders and shareholders have already lost.
Checkmate even before most current owners realize they are in a complex chess game with no moves to escape.
But all of this is pure speculation based on various credible inputs and valid theories.
As you say, it's really a "black box" right now. The puppeteers have still not been identified but there's some pretty bold moves being made. It won't save shareholders in my view and it will be interesting to see how many get fool with the fake gold ("adjusted EBITDA" based numbers) being pumped.
Even with the years of self invesing experience, I don't know how to play this at the current point of time. "Watching from a distance" seems to be the best but I want to jump in big but there's just too many red flags to go long.
I'd love to see options traders lay out their strategy from here.
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