RE:RE:RE:Delisting Noticeexcellent considered opinion Meetoo. Some random musings and back of napkin calculations..............
Unsecured bond holders will not allow any percentage to existing shareholders that enhances significant appreciation from the current common share price. Why should they?
Note holders aren't going to commit economic suicide - but they are also unlikely to accept a haircut that would mean they would fare better in CCAA.
By your calculation - 1.5 billion enterprise value, 2 billion debt restructuring. Unsecured notes are higher up the capital food chain than common share holders.
Secured Notes are covenant heavy - they rank pari passu with the bank loan. There will be no flexibility from them whatsoever. approx 300 million issue.
2 billion of debt for 1.2 billion of residual equity - napkin guestimate 60 cents on the dollar will be what the unsecured debt holders will be looking to recover. This is incredibly optimistic - but represents a 4 bagger at recent levels. Surely this is a better trade than the common stock?
Its a great dilemma - the ballance between greed and fear with the competing interests across the asset classes. The unsecured holders want to get as much as they can - they will try to bury the common share holders without getting bunt by the secured and the banks..............
I am on a cell phone "watching" kids soccer game - so my numbers may be way off. Lets hope we can all come out of this with a profit on the books! Place your bets and enjoy the show - human nature at its finest will be on display in the coming months.