Concordia Healthcare Corp. T.CXR.R

CIBC While we wait...

[Tobuyornot]

What's The Event

Concordia reports Q1/16 results on the morning of Friday, May 13th, followed by a conference call at 8:30 a.m. ET. Dial-in: (647) 427- 7450 or [phone]; Reference Number: 87616030.

Q1/16 will be the first quarter where we see a full quarter of financial impact from the AMCo transaction which closed in midOctober 2015. The US business will likely be relatively weak in Q1, reflecting light Donnatal sales, and the continued challenges in the US market for legacy drugs.

* We forecast Q1 revenue of $224.4 million ($146 million from AMCo and $76.4 million from Legacy) vs. consensus $226.7 million.

* Our Adjusted EBITDA estimate is $138.1 million ($81 million from AMCo and $61 million from Legacy) vs. consensus $138.7 million.

While the FT article last week placed a spotlight on the pricing of Concordia's products in the UK, this should not come as a surprise to investors, notwithstanding the relatively large increase in Fucithalmic. We remind investors that AMCo has previously admitted that its growth came through price increases, acquisitions and product launches. Although we don't expect major backlash from past pricing practices, the newly publicized scrutiny over pricing in the UK may have a moderating effect on Concordia's ability to take future price increases in that jurisdiction, and will likely be monitored closely. This could also impact any strategic review process that may be ongoing.

On the call, we will look for any update on 2016 guidance, progress on debt repayment, more details on the performance of AMCo and future product launches, as well as commentary on the pricing and reimbursement environment in both the US and the UK relating to Concordia's products.

We maintain our price target of $34 per share. Our price target is based on an 8.5x 2016 EV/EBITDA and net debt of $3.1 billion.

[Hateshorts]

honesly.. Following CIBC fo me before was diasterous. Rbc is fsr better.

[visionaryfool]

Agreed. I think RBC last Q nailed it. They were the closest of the houses I believe for estimates vs. actual.

[Stockcoach1]

Personally I have not found anyone else that has done more research than Scotiabank's Alan Ridgeway on CXR. I don't know of anyone else that actually put boots on the ground in Europe, had extensive meetings with the AMCo staff to get a handle on the business and took time to research the British healthcare system. This is a guy that I trust more than any other analyst. He based his

[cavinsin]

Stockcoach I agree 100%, please check your PM box, and please keep it for yourself, Burning hurts, and we don't want them to endure prolonged pain, like we longs did last 6 months. Day of reckoning coming. do not give your shares away, shorts are still trying for you to capitulate,, This is very solid company with huge potential either as CXR or under private ownership,

[cavinsin]

Must admit today I have some time, so I decided to browse through some posts, on this BB. Let me tell you ,nothing matter, nothing, for the future of this co. no ones opinion on this board, matter , neither you can change direction of the train at full speed. If you are reading this BB, and planning your investment strategy, based what you reed here, you are big time, looser, What is happening in

[Lesalpes29]

Great post cavinsin. 

[cavinsin]

Its all about supply and demand Lesalpes, This is free market, not government run stable.There is absolutely nothing wrong with VRX, ENDP, CXR business model, nothing, All three should distance themselves, from special investigative committee, continue with their business model, raise the prices as required to stay in business. Jointly initiate statement of claim against all of those that have

[Scruggstyle]

Cavinsin, you are right on the money.  I was contemplating writing a similar post with respect to the cost of food, automobiles, orthodontics, housing, children's clothing, haircuts for a man with less hair than in he had in the 70's, etc., etc., etc., etc. . . . but you beat me to the punch.  Fxxx the buy-out.  Bring on Q2, Q3, Q4, bring on 2017!!

[StevieCohen]

CIBC?  Do they even Investment Bank?...never heard of anyone going to work there after school...likely because their research and IB is basically non existent.

[TheRock07]

CIBC have CXR shorted. That house is the largest pimp, dominating the wash trading to the remainder of the short pack. Pay no attention to it..

[Tobuyornot]

What a great board. Everyone gives a completely useless opinion on CIBC while neglecting to say anything about the report. Others find another analyst better but fail to share their reports thereby presenting another completely useless opinion. My vote is you go back to the totally useful pursuit of slagging each other. F,ING hilarious!

[Lattice]

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