Concordia Healthcare Corp. T.CXR.R

Cash Position at End of 2016 & 2017

[Lumberfeverlong]

The mindless sheep that comprises the market continues to amaze me day after day.  Although others have already done this today, I feel compelled to porvide projected cash balances for 2016 and even 2017 based on Mamagaement's revised guyidance.  

End of 2016 Cash Balance:

Cash at end of Q2: USD $145M
EBITDA for H2: USD $242M
Full Cinven Earn Out: USD $188 based on an exchange rate of 1.33 USD to GBP
Interest for H2: USD $120M
Principal for H2: USD$10M (not 100% sure on this one)

Cash Balance at end of 2016: $145M + $242M- USD $188- USD$120- USD $10=$69

If Company defers half of Cinven earn out to February cash balance at end of 2016 becomes USD $69 + USD $94=USD $163



Cash Balance at end of 2017 Assuming no Growth and Full payment of Cinven Earn Out:

Cash Balance at Begninning of 2016: USD $69
EBITDA for 2017: USD $242+ USD $242=USD$484
Interest for 2017: USD $240M
Principal for 2017: USD $20M

Cash Balance at end of 2017: USD$69 + USD $484 - USD $240-USD $20M=USD$293

All of the above assumes absolutely no draw on the revolver.  The market is clearly out of whack on this one.  The erosion in EBITDA for this to have any solvency issues would have to be collosal meaning in the ranger of a 50% drop in EBITDA in a very short period of time. I just don't see it.  I really don't.  I think there might be some addiitonal downward trending in EBITDA, but not anything close to 50%.  And remeber there are product launches in the pipelin which should counteract any decreased pricing on products due tot he headwinds the company is facing.

I'm holding this until next earnings season. Management's ineptitude in disclosure and the shorts short and distort campaign have created the perfect brew to bring this SP this low.  I wish I had not purchased when I did.  I would be loading up big time now.  This is an easy 5 bagger from here in less than 12 months, but the next two months it will be ruled by uninformed emotion.

[patenright11]

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[patenright11]

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[CxrBull]

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[patenright11]

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[CxrBull]

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[LuckyLuke1]

I didn't understand too much but somebody told me it is going down because they have a poison pill ?

[Buriedincxr1]

Lumber, with all the respect. I urge you to consider that many insiders are in the know as aparant by the technicals.   What I mean is that Everytime SP had a steady drop for a few days it ended in a bad news release and a massive drop that day.  Today it's starting another cycle of one day drops except I suspect this one will end in the death blow.  U need to realize that with

[patenright11]

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[Buriedincxr1]

Paten: the only bs here is the money all the retail investors are losing with this well coordinated house of cards of a company built specifically by Wall Street to be destroyed just because it can.  

[marxath]

Since when is remaining solvent the criterion for a worthwhile investment? Bankruptcy discussion asside, the growth profile of this hall of mirrors is bleak to nonexistent. This is unanimously uninvestable as far as funds and institutions are concerned...KKR lmao...gimme a break.

[greatplay]

Great post! I agree... Current capital will take the company in 2018; and Cash flow makes this company a gem with current capitalization

[marxath]

If you characterize a company with cashflow that barely exceeds its debt obligations as a "gem", there are about 500 gems on the S&P 500 that are far more suitable for a person of your aptitude.

[Craigbad]

When i see the word "gem" on the board of a company who has lost over 90% of its market cap, it confirms the penny stock crowd are the only ones looking to buy it and my short thesis is 100% right. 

[Lumberfeverlong]

How does a company that makes more than twice than it needs to service debt qualify as barely meeting its debt obligations???  This circus show will end eventually. I can't believe it has gone on so long.

[MirrorWorldMan]

It's interesting how share price alone influences investors and analysts attitude towards a company. It makes people second guess their prior decisions and produced a lynch mob with analysts and the media.  Everyone starts looking for the fire behind all the smoke after the fact. Declining share price makes people think that others know something we Don't. The only information that

[notwrong]

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