RE:Thoughts on Q2 resultsI won't be able to beat Longroad's post on details. That was an impressive list.
All I can say is that while the company has undertaken a number of positive steps (new business wins, restructuring, ERP, etc.) the business/industry remains very challenged. While we saw a relief rally in the US peers, the organic growth rates for certain end markets, such as commercial print, forms, etc. continue to decline in excess of 5%.
As mentioned by Longroad, a few "wins" should offset the secular headwinds this year. That said, I expect 2019 revenues to decline compared with last year, but hoping EBITDA (pre-IFRS) stays steady at around $22 million. For Q2, I'm looking for adjusted EBITDA of $4 million. According to Domtar, I do believe there was a small increase in paper prices in the quarter, likely limiting the company's ability to recoup a more normalized price/cost spread.
All that being said...if DCM can hold EBITDA flat for 2019...I think the shares are a double (eventually).
If the company can paydown debt, reduce the cost structure, and shift sales mix towards marketing services...it'll eventually get a better multiple. A solid management team should get us there.