RE:RE:Can All Debt be Paid off over next 4 quarters ? The biggest fault in your valuation methods is your growth and margin assumptions. The fact is the history of this company demonstrates this is not a predictable business model. Had you been here 5 years ago you would've made the same assumptions about the business; I know as I've been following/owning since then and we've all been guilty (mgmt and shareholders alike) making projections. They tried the guidance game last in 2016 (pls check dates) and failed miserably and abandoned guidance which was the right move but highlights the uncertainty. Sh*t happens such as the ERP debacle and pandemic etc etc. The bread and butter of this business is not a great long term ROIC/compounding type of business. We can throw all the math/projections and valuation techniques we want but the fact is this isn't a predictable business and assumptions are just that, assumptions. I'm not agreeing or disagreeing with your analysis but for to suggest the range of outcomes is wide. A predictable business does not have restructuring charges every quarter for 3+ years or however long it's been. I'm not suggesting anything in terms of mgmt being incompetent; far from it but this is yet another data point indicating the unpredictable nature of the business. The value of any business is the discounted value of future cash flows. There's no chance we can predict this with any certainty and I would also suggest one would input a 20% discount rate to account for the uncertainty/risk and size. Plus it's basically a controlled business which further depresses valuation. Valuing this can't be done given the inputs IMO. That can change but the adjustments need to go away for a few quarters at least for us to get a true sense of the earnings power and predictability of this business.
In short, this business right now is a deep value turnaround story (and has been for the better part of 5 years now). From what I've seen this isn't a well moated business and thus unlikely to compound wealth predictably over the long term. That doesn't mean it can't change but the portability of success given past turnaround situations isn't favourable. The company has been in the penalty box for a while and it's great to see the financials finally get to a spot we knew they could. The upside optionality once the debt is paid off is substantial and I wish everyone well and encourage everyone to do their own due diligence. Happy Fathers Day. Cheers.