TSX:DIR.UN - Post by User
Comment by
Capharnaumon Apr 28, 2022 11:40am
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Post# 34639115
RE:More Scotiabank
RE:More ScotiabankImo, the stagflation argument made by mr. Saric regarding what happened in the 70s and 80s isn't valid because it's an old sample for times where the economy was vastly different. Economies were not globalized, manufacturing was still mainly local and were the main victims of this environment.
Also, today, the main cause behind the inflation is a lack of supply. Due to that, I believe industrial REITs have risen since the outlook for industrial properties, in any economic scenario, looks favorable. At worse, a recession will level demand to current supply (which is having difficulty just matching pre-covid levels), which will keep supporting the industrial value. The shipping crisis is also was from over even if there is a recession, and this should keep driving value for local industrial properties.
I think if there's a recession (which I believe will technically happen with Q1 being -1.4% real GDP in the US), it's the office and retail properties that are going to be hit once again while the industrial and residential undersupply will keep the NAVpu and rents going higher in those sectors.