MY PROJECTION FOR DYNACERT SHARE PRICE AS ON 1ST MARCH 2018I am a big fan of Dynacert and I hold substantial number of shares. However, this is my first ever post on bullboard. I give below my analysis of the situation. I am no expert and would suggest that each one of you do your own Due Diligence.
- Orders booked till date: 276 (earlier NR) + over 430 (today's NR) = more than 706
- Average Order per Fleet Owner = 4 units (my assumption)
- No. of Fleets in the Mix = 706/4 = 176.5
- Average Size of Fleet = 50 Class 8 Tractors (my assumption)
- Total Sales in 2017 based on orders booked till date = 176.5 x 50 x 0.75 = 6,619 units (my assumption is that bigger fleets will spread installation of units over 2 years, hence the factor 0.75 in the calculation)
- Orders that will be booked over next 2 months from Fleets untapped till date = 700 (my assumption and is based on domestic plus exports)
- Total Sales that will result in 2017 from new Fleets tapped in point 6 = 6,619 units (my assumption)
- Therefore, my expectation of Total Sales in 2017 = 6,619 + 6,619 = say 13,240 units = 13,240 x $6,750/unit = $89.370 million
- Assuming Gross margin @ 60%, Expected Gross Margin for 2017 = $53.622 million
- Being a Green Tech Company, I expect Gross Margin Multiplier of 10
- Therefore, my expectation of Market Cap, once 2017 annual results are declared = $536.220 million
- Assuming 230.61 million shares (google finance shows this number as on date), Expected Share Price as on 1st March 2018 = $2.33
- I attended the recent AGM and was a bit disappointed on seeing the assembly and component stocks. I think the company will have to up there game to achieve the above numbers. They will have to become more aggressive in terms of timely manufacturing of the Smart ECUs and in procuring the components.
- I do not expect any worthwhile sales of HG-2 units in 2017.
- Keeping in view the size of potential markets, I assume a successful 2017 will lead to at least doubling of the Share Price over at least next 5 years.