In their latest presentation, Spectral published some EBITDA targets (potential) assuming various levels of market penetration... Taking them at face value, here are their published/theoretical EBITDA targets:

$ 96 M USD At 25 % market penetration

$ 134 M USD At 35 % market penetration

$ 173 M USD   At 45% market penetration

What does this figure mean ?   EBITDA = Earnings before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation Amortization. EBITDA makes it easier to compare the financial health of various companies. It is also useful for evaluating firms with different capital structures, tax rates and depreciation policies. At the same time, EBITDA gives investors a sense of how much money a young or restructured company might generate before it has to hand over payments to creditors and the taxman. While it doesn't give a complete picture of Company performance, EBITDA is the topmost level of cash flow that is available (or not) for all of the reinvestments that are necessary to enable businesses to grow and to provide returns for owners.  Corporate acquirers, private equity investors, investment bankers and valuation analysts all focus on this important measure of cash flow.

The EBITDA multiple be used as just one of several approaches to valuing a company.The EBITDA Multiple is best considered a rule of thumb, a quick way to estimate business value by applying a discount rate to a measure of cash flow.  It's the most frequently referenced and easy to apply technique to arriving at an estimate of enterprise value (closely related to but not exactly market cap) .  Its simplicity and apparent ease of comparison across transactions and industries have made this a frequently reported measure in M&A discussions and the business press.

Here's a101 Primer 
 
https://stillwatercapital.ca/valuation-101-the-ebitda-multiple/

So what would be the multiplier be?  It differs by industry. Fortunately it is measured often across thousands of companies and applied to various industry groups.

EBITDA multiples                   Valuation   
by Industry                 =          EBITDA

So if you knew the average multiple for an industry and applied it to an idividual company - you could in theory  arrive at a notional valuation

Valuation  =  EBITDA multiple by Industy  X  EBITDA

So what is the EBITDA multiple for Advanced Medical Equipment and technoology ?

I found this website (there are others that show similar multipliers)

https://www.equidam.com/ebitda-multiples-trbc-industries/


This site suggests a multiplier of 24.81  (the higher the multiplier, typically the higher the barriers to entry, the more profitable and exclusive the profits (e.g FDA approved and protected treatments).  The average for the S&P is aroung 12 .

So if one beleived that Spectral fit into this category, and one applied it to Spectral's own estimates of EBITDA, the calcuation would go as follows:

EBITDA                                                                   Multipiler             Valuation   

$ 96 M USD   At 25 % market penetration                   24.81            $ 2.4 B

$ 134 M USD At 35 % market penetration                   24.81            $ 3.3 B

$ 173 M USD  At 45% market penetration                   24.81            $ 4.3 B


Remember these figures are from Spectral, using an industry std multiplier.

The EBITDA figures (Spectral's)  assumes 100k patient target PMX market (not 120k, not 192k - see my previous email), US only (not Canada) , 2 cartridges only (not 3) , USD only (not Cdn $ ), PMX only (not Dialco, EAA worldwide, etc.) .

How do you calculate EV per share?

Divide the valuation above by the number of shares (say 250,000,000 for round numberrs sake)

So with $ 134M in EBITDA (35 % market penetration)  the EV/sh should be...

$ 3.3 B / 250M = USD $ 13.20 /share

What might they be willing to sell the Company for? 

Other considerations:
  • discount to present day?
  • Odds of FDA approval
  • Other reveunes (e.g EAA and Dialco)
  • $ 6B in revenue targets vs $ 1.5 B targets (see my revenue post)
MM

PS I bought more this am in the low sixties.

PS1  This is all theoretical JMHO, DYODD