Spectral Medical Inc T.EDT

Global Sepsis Deaths are double previous estimates...

[mercedesman]

https://www.usnews.com/news/best-countries/articles/2020-01-16/global-sepsis-deaths-are-double-previous-estimates

Article using stats pre- Covid-19

The study, led by researchers at the University of Pittsburgh and University of Washington schools of medicine, found 48.9 million global cases of sepsis and 11 million deaths in 2017, which is nearly 20% of all fatalities, according to a news release accompanying the study. The new numbers are roughly double the leading previous estimate published in 2016, says Dr. Kristina Rudd, assistant professor in the University of Pittsburgh Department of Critical Care Medicine and lead author of the study.

What if 10 % of the world's actual (not suspected) Sepsis cases got a (single!) EAA reading (to ascertain endotoxin levels and or a proposed treatment plan).  Note: same as 3% getting an average of 3 readings throughout hosptial stay/treatment..

48.9M x .10 = 4.9M EAA tests

X $200 USD per test  (latest estimate from prior presentations)

= $980,000,000 USD

= $ 1.3 B CAD 

= $ 5.21 Rev/share. (based on 250M shares o/s)


Guess as to the margin on the EAA test (the only FDA approved test for Endotoxins/Sepsis) for which Spectral has the world-wide rights?

MM

[inspecthrgadget]

The EAA test rules out gram negative too.  Gram negative infections are always accompanied by elevated endotoxin levels. Remember we are quite certain that higher EAA levels suggest a much greater risk of mortality...read Spectrals 843 patient MEDIC study from the early 2000's. We seem to have established this relationship on several occasions. Finding an EAA level in the .45 to .60

[Accountprince]

I think the margin is $55 Cdn per EAA kit.  The July 2020 presentation had EBITDA from the EAA at $11mill USD so $14.85 mill Cdn ($1US is $1.35 Cdn) for 270,000 EAA kits.  Voila the calculator says $55 Cdn each based on mgmt numbers.

[mercedesman]

im surprised it's not more than that, but ok let's go with that.  recapping... if annually the world experiences 48.9M cases of Sepsis each year , and if just 5% used two EAAs to verify, rule- in, rule out or monitor for endotoxins (ieone check + one recheck for just 5% of the world's cases)  that's 4.9 million EAAs used annually  At $55 EBITDA per unit

[Accountprince]

The trading is not only manipulated but what gets reported as volume and price is also manipulated.  Can't rely on what you see daily.  As I said in a previous post I have real world experience in seeing this.  So don't take the daily trading as any indication of the true market or what is actually happening. Your calculations are spot on.  If you take the EAA at $1

[Rickkie]

Accountprince, re:The trading is not only manipulated but what gets reported as volume and price is also manipulated.  Can't rely on what you see daily.  As I said in a previous post I have real world experience in seeing this.  So don't take the daily trading as any indication of the true market or what is actually happening. Who is doing this and for what purpose?

[Accountprince]

Wish I knew who the culprit(s) are.  But when you buy thousands of shares less than 2 weeks ago and the volume is not included in that days reported volume and the price you paid per share is higher than the daily reported trading range it's the strangest thing I've ever seen. As for the purpose I don't know why (or how) someone is able to do this but the result is a lower than

[Rickkie]

Accountprince,  I don't know either - I was hoping you would know.  Beats me why Dr. Walker and long time insiders like Tory and Birch Hill would not want to see the true value reflected. There are other(s) here who espouse a conspiracy theory, but written in cryptic language. I have been accused of being part of the conspiracy, which is funny.  Perhaps he/she/they could

[mercedesman]

I think your 10X multiplier is in the right range (and conservative) I think a buck for Dialco is light if they get the solid entry into what will be an expected and fast growing HHD market (based on previous players and what they have paid) I think your PMX valuation may also be a bit light, in part due to the understated top-line revenue potential, in part due to the extreme valuations that US