Spectral Medical Inc T.EDT

Baxter

[Glenview]

Probably the deal with Baxter is already made, just not announced yet.

[mercedesman]

Hey Glenview  An excellent deduction worth exploring. Some might say, " but all material contracts have to be disclosed" Do they ? Perhaps not if they are in some ways "contingent" on a future event that has yet to happen ( eg FDA approval) or perhaps not if the value of the contract, understanding or MOU could not be reasonably quantified , say for example

[BlueJays9293]

If the Tigris interim analysis shows a 12-15% absolute mortality benefit then you are looking at a 600 to 900 million dollar take out price. If the Tigris interim analysis shows a 17-22% abslolute mortality benefit, then you are looking at a 1.2 to 1.7 b takeout price. Anything above that or in between, and you will have to adjust your recipe accordingly.   That's what this very

[mercedesman]

Thx for weighing in BJguy If those are USD prices , sounds about right  Personally, I'm hoping for >20% Questions: Have you ( or your smart financial guy) factored in WW rights to EAA, and NA rights to iDialco? I noticed you said " if the interim results show...".  So can I put you down for expecting a transaction between 90 and 150?  MM  &

[BlueJays9293]

Those are usd numbers yes. Secondly, you need to stop with this EAA valuation fantasy. At peek EAA will bring in 80-100mm WW revenue minus COGS, which only leaves 50 to 70 mm tops. It's an aperitif at best but also a very neccesary companion.   A bonus hinged on the success of PMX. As far as Dialco goes you really need to get to reality. Sami and Dimi went back to the drawing

[jdunlop]

Blue boy, who gives a fak about cogs/opec, they will sell spectral.

[mercedesman]

Valuation fantasy ? How is an additional $100m USD in Revenue from EAA  chicken feed or an aperitif ?  Not to mention it's the keys to the Ferrari - everywhere in the world   Selling EAAs everywhere is a simple business model that alone could support a $1 USD valuation ( assuming PMX approval) $100m X 4 (conservative P/S) = $ 400M divided by 400M shares = $1 USD 

[oilandgasman]

Valuation fantasy  Actually I have the valuation model as  $0.00013393 per share per future patient treated per year ;) For example: assuming 140,000 ESS patients in any given year  And 50% market penetration  so SP  = ave # treated x .00013393 = 140,000 x 1/2 x .000133393 = $9.375/sh CAD  And therefore MC would be :  9.375 X 320,000

[mercedesman]

Thx for bringing that up oil and gas bag  Seems to be in the ballpark of $2B valuation ( USD and pre - WW rights to EAA and any value assigned to iDialco)  For the record, I am assuming >20% ARR under Tigris.  Oh I am also assuming that the Spectral Mgt team and BoD's are skilled enough to achieve maximum value for their shareholders - as it is their fiduciary duty

[BlueJays9293]

It's all about the absolute risk reduction.  The higher the ARR, the higher the premium pricing for PMX, and the quicker the market penetration for PMX.  These are the most important factors for Baxter.  I could see a 2 billion dollar valuation if the ARR is 25%.  I could see a 1.5 billion dollar valuation if the ARR is 20%.  I could see a 1 billion dollar valuation

[mercedesman]

I still say that PMX is worth 3-4 Ohtani's  With EAA and IDialco rights and some good ARR ( above 20%)  it's worth over 4 to 5 Ohtani's  MM 

[BlueJays9293]

That's a very entertaining way of looking at it.  It would be funny if the mergers and acquisition guys on Bay Street started using that to informally represent 500mm when talking about big deals.  Did you see the news that Baxter just paid five Ohtani's for Spectral medical?  You should coin that expression.  

[mercedesman]

Lol Rather than coin the expression I'm going to create an Ohtani crypto-coin instead.  it'll be even more lucrative in the long run. I'll limit the number to 400 reflecting his expected batting average  A chocolate bar will cost .0000000003 Ohtani coins   

[MMABStrader]

If the ARR is 25%, I think the FDA stops the test at 90 participants.

[BlueJays9293]

I completely agree.  That would be a huge ethical dilema for the FDA because of the final 60 patients, 20 of them are going to be forced into the control group and have PMX withheld from them or in other words 5 people are going to die unnecessarily.  

[mercedesman]

Apparently Tigris is tracking Euphas 2 results  Euphas 1 was stopped early for ethical reasons, after only 64 patients with an ARR of > 20%  Tigris is Open Label .. so the Docs know the score or can easily figure it out.  Potential Ethical dilemma is correct.  Doing  the math on potential lives saved on a potential eligible market of 140,000 patients annually

[BlueJays9293]

So I just got a google alert about John Kellum.  Apparently he did some sort of Pittsburgh University newspaper street interview and it sounds like he's a little buzzed but he definitely revealed some internal thoughts about what "exceeding expectations" means to him.  Here's the link, tell me what you think. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5C6EwLTAvHc

[BlueJays9293]

I am so so so sorry.  I accidentaly posted the wrong video link.  Senior moment I guess.  Anyways here's the correct link to the interview and so sorry about my flub. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MCUnWIs88CQ