Spectral Medical Inc T.EDT

Revised Communication Strategy

[ChesterLives]

I think they need to seriously examine how they release news. 90 patients was supposed to serve as a "major catalyst" for the SP. instead we have a 10% pullback.

Maybe real  IR is in order moving forward.

[mercedesman]

Good luck ! I've been calling for that for 5+ years now.  Alng with upgraded US Listing or even Nasdaq.  Obviously none of that is a part of the end-game plan. Leaving only one outcome that makes sense. Cuz even the insiders need to liquidate. MM 

[MMABStrader]

Mercedesman... you may get your wish regarding a U.S. listing.  I continue to believe management will ask shareholders to vote to approve a reverse stock split at the annual shareholder meeting in June, especially if there are no serious discussions with Baxter in the next two months regarding Baxter buying Spectral. Even if buyout discussions with Baxter begin, It might even be a good idea

[daviking]

MMAB, If, " there are no serious discussions with Baxter in the next two months regarding Baxter buying Spectral", this stock is toast! They will have seen the results of the trial and if those don't follow what has been touted by Kellum, Seto, et al, and doesn't interest them, who else will be? Since Kellum is on vacation for the last month, that is a bit concerning!

[daviking]

And if the "Knowledgeable" analyst is only touting $1.60 after all the $5-10/per share, YIKES!

[hmmmmmmmm]

On an upgraded US Listing the SP would have gotten crushed and delisted- over the years of limping along at 1- 2 patients enrolled per month. Being a penny stock is where it needed to be until it has real trial success. This has always been a takeout play.

[mercedesman]

How do you define trial success? At 90 patients in Phase 3b? Post Tigris data analysis?  There are plenty ( hundreds? Thousands?) of examples of US companies commanding high share prices despite only having a Phase 1 trial underway, or a Phase 2 Trial .., Biotech investors in the US have no problem speculating on the success of various drugs or devices, even when the end decision

[hmmmmmmmm]

It doesn't matter how/ when I define trial success- it matters when Baxter does.  As with most deals, the payout gets larger when the risk gets smaller/ eliminated. I don't think it worth debating how other Biotechs are valued. We have a rocky trial road going back to 2010 Euphrates. We are in a "prove it" position before we would see the type of investor support as the

[BlueJays9293]

Nothing relevant to say here, but I think it's appropriate to point out that this spin off, is a big part of their historical foundation, dialysis and kidney's is where this company cut it's teeth, so to say that Vantive will be handed off with every opportunity to succeed would be an understatement.  I'm not going to get all nostalgic but Baxter is an old school company, and

[mercedesman]

I believe we see an announcement from Baxter next week, I believe they will sweeten/ add to the 2.5m interim payment (considerably) and formally put their resouces into expiditing the trial. -Hmmmm I hope you're right but I suspect you are not.  Announcement likely several weeks to a month + away. Interim  payment increase above $2.5 ?- not convinced.  Another raise to

[BlueJays9293]

Says the guy that got confussed between July and November, and decided to go with December. Of a different year! LOL. Okay if that's your story and you're sticking to it, I'll officially admit it into the record. Carry on.

[mercedesman]

Good point Schmiedly  There's $5.9 million of in the money warrants exercisable within 5 months at .50 that has to factored into "what will Baxter do and when" equation. Also there, theronostically speaking, is your floor.  Personally I prefer my .48's over these.... but have to wait a bit longer for those to ripen.  MM 

[MMABStrader]

Where's the $2.5 million number coming from.  My understanding is that Baxter paid Spectral $5 million to get marketing rights. And, I would expect the "interim" payment to be $5 million or more.

[ChesterLives]

That is the figure the Paradigm analyst mentioned.

[hmmmmmmmm]

If you go back to Oct 2022 you'll see "Baxter has agreed to purchase US$2,500,000 million in Notes"  That was reported as moving part of the interim payment forward.  You'll also remeber the interim payment amount- like most of the financial elements of the Feb 2020 contract were redacted. But, we have seen in analyst coverage the expected 5m- and then 2.5m. I'm

[mercedesman]

You must have enrolled in Kumon ... ... I've noticed a bit of an improvement ;) MM 

[BlueJays9293]

Big picture wise, I think how we get there financially is looking like we have some very very palatable options from a shareholders perspective.  The options we have going forward are unlike what an old timer like me has really ever seen in the past and that makes me happy. Best Option, Baxter makes the 2.5mm interim milestone payment in the next two weeks (zero dilution).  This will

[mercedesman]

A pretty good summary BJ  There is at least one more option / possibility.  Less likely perhaps but NOT impossible IMO. Baxter decides that the Trial has been sufficiently derisked after a slightly more in-depth look-see (and a re-read of JK's paper). And then decides it's go time for their IPO and that they need to muster up some high margin sizzle toute de suite for their

[BlueJays9293]

Good point! Two very good reasons to get while the getting is good. I concur

[BlueJays9293]

I actually see things as slightly more dire for Vantive without PMX,  a 1% to 2% grower???  C'mon, that doesn't even keep up with inflation lol, nobody even in a great environment is after that.  A legacy company with zero innovation?? Puh-lease. I'd rather still own AOL stock and be catching all those people that never cancelled their dial up.  LOL They are