EXPM:EGRGF - Post by User
Post by
pemvestlgon Sep 16, 2013 3:55pm
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Post# 21743723
EGL.UN " STRONG BUY"-GOOD READ
EGL.UN " STRONG BUY"-GOOD READProduction guidance- full year 2013~ 2,900-3,100 boepd and annual distribution is $1.05 ( .0875/month).
At present 51% of their production is hedged between $87-$108 WTI (1600 bbl/d) ~ the balance production is receiving spot+ premium ( extremely "sweet").
Additional facts:
1. 31 million unit outstanding
2. Total Equity~ $240 million
3. $7.75 book value
4. Total reserves 16 million boe ( 68% proved, 29% proved producing~ reserve life 14.3 years based upon 2013 production forecasts).
5. 2nd Q netback $52.20
6. ENYTF continues to lower operating costs to keep netbacks high and maintain a lean balance sheet. The company is prudent in its use of debt, striving to remain below 1.5 annual cash flow. Eagle's debt is .8x annual cash flow.
7. Fund the capital to replace decline with 50% of CF & deliver moderate annual production growth on that asset.
8. Eagle is generating a conservative 1.0X D/CF for 2013E on an effective pay out of 119%.
9. 6 months ending~ wells drilled 6.4 net and 5.3 wells brought on stream.
10. 2nd Q~ rev $17 million, funds flow from Operations~$12 million ( $43.56/boe), per unit .39, income .13 and cash distribution of .2625.
11. Basic Pay out Ratio~ $1.05/unit~ 71%
12. Capital budget for 2013~ $26 million, 2,900-3,100 boepd, funds flow from operations $45 million.
13. Credit facility $61 million
When you stand back and look hard at this income producing investment vehicle it should make you smile!!
We have a very handsome monthly pay out with attractive upside potential from unit appreciation. We are currently trading @ book, extremely appealing Oil pricing and a large % of production that is NOT hedged! From the current environment we believe that it is very possible that management may declare a special dividend @ the end of 2013 because of excessive cash flow. Every $1.00 in the price of WTI increase funds flow from operations by .01. The Canadian $ has also been weak~ so that gives us additional upside and every 100 barrels of oil produced above the guidance gives us .08. We also receive a premium of a few dollars above WTI because our oil is so "sweet". The management team continues to reduce expenses. Eagle Energy Trust is almost the perfect investment.. We see limited downside risk because of very firm oil price ( Egypt, Libya,Syria,Yemen, Nigeria,Iran and Iraq- all lend to higher and very firm Oil prices).
We suggest interested investor visit their excellent website and listen to their presentations by management.
During Sept 2013- Management is presenting 10 road shows in Canada starting Sept 16-26 2013. We also anticipate that a "new" corporate presentation will be released on the 16th of Sept.
www.eagleenergytrust.com
phone~ 713 300 3245/ 1-855 531 1575
WE RATE ENYTF WITH A STRONG BUY RECOMMENDATION @ CURRENT LEVELS FOR INVESTORS LOOKING FOR EXCELLENT MONTHLY INCOME AND CAPITAL APPRECIATION. WE SEE VERY LITTLE DOWNSIDE RISK @ CURRENT LEVELS AND BELIEVE INVESTORS WILL JUMP @ THE CHANCE TO OWN THIS EXTREMELY UNDERVALUED TRUST!
Special divy would be nice.